#比特币市场分析 Looking at the latest Polymarket data, the probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 this year has decreased from 11% to 10%. Although this change is not large, the signal it reflects is worth noting. More interesting is that the $95,000 level has consistently maintained a 32% probability, while the chance of dropping below $80,000 has decreased from 24% to 18%—indicating that market expectations for downside risk are easing.

From a capital perspective, with less than two weeks until the end of the year, the pricing in the prediction market reflects a pessimistic attitude among institutions and active participants about breaking new highs within the year. This may be due to several overlapping factors: tightening macro liquidity, adjustments in Federal Reserve policy expectations, and profit-taking pressure at high levels. Conversely, the decreasing probability of falling below $80,000 suggests that downside support is gradually being recognized, which is a positive sign for building defenses.

Recent on-chain whale movements are key—if institutions continue to accumulate at current prices, there may be room for adjustment in the prediction market’s pessimistic pricing; otherwise, more caution is needed. The low probability of reaching $100,000 this year does not mean there is no chance, but the risk-reward ratio needs to be re-evaluated.