#比特币市场周期 Seeing the internal strategic divergence at Fundstrat, the essence of this reflects the differentiated pricing of investor profiles. Sean Farrell adopts an active rebalancing strategy for clients with high-configuration crypto assets, while Tom Lee's framework serves institutional investors with 1-5% allocations— their time horizons, risk tolerances, and return expectations are completely misaligned, making their differing viewpoints reasonable.

The key signal lies in the current assessment that Bitcoin is in an "unclaimed" valuation zone. The rebound at the beginning of the year, the correction in the first half, and the expected deployment at year's end correspond to a compressed interpretation of the traditional four-year cycle. However, recent on-chain pressures warrant attention: original holders selling off, miner cost pressures, and the potential risk of MSTR being excluded—all are dynamically changing capital flows.

In the short term, waiting for confirmation signals is more pragmatic than blind judgment. There is indeed room for Bitcoin to dip to $60,000-$65,000, but that could also be a more attractive deployment point in the second half of the year. The focus is not on predicting absolute peaks but on identifying cyclical capital differentiation nodes— which funds are fleeing, which are quietly accumulating— this determines the true market direction.