#预测市场发展 As the forecast probabilities for the Fed Chair candidate fluctuate, I recall many investors are attracted to these kinds of "high-confidence predictions" and hurriedly adjust their allocations. But a closer look at this data—14%, 21%, 56%—these probabilities change weekly, reflecting the market's uncertainty about the future rather than any definitive signal.

I've experienced too many cycles of "predictions coming true" and "predictions being proven wrong." The change of the Fed Chair can indeed influence monetary policy direction; that's true. But adjusting positions based on the probability fluctuations in the prediction market often involves using high noise to guide decisions. The key question is: do your asset allocations really need to rely on these weekly-changing probabilities?

Instead of fixating on these numbers, ask yourself: Is my investment portfolio already capable of withstanding different policy environments? In the long run, regardless of who sits in that position, the fundamental economic laws remain. A prudent approach is to build sufficient diversified positions and risk buffers, allowing you to calmly handle various possible outcomes.

Predictions are tempting, but a sense of security comes from thorough preparation.