Gemini's Five Major Predictions for the Year: The 4-Year Bitcoin Cycle Has Ended, Digital Asset Custody Companies Will Merge to Survive

MarsBitNews · 2026-01-07T03:23:59+00:00

Mars Finance News: Gemini Institutional Business Director Patrick Liou releases five major predictions for 2026. 1. The four-year Bitcoin cycle is dead; ETF and institutional adoption are making the market more mature, with volatility decreasing from a historical 80% to 25-40%, and drawdowns only 30% instead of the past 75-90%. 2. Crypto will become a bipartisan issue in the 2026 US midterm elections, with the CLARITY Act expected to make breakthroughs. 3. The crypto prediction market will expand on a large scale, with Polymarket's growth attracting players like Coinbase. 4. Digital asset custody companies will merge to survive; MicroStrategy in Q4 last year

MarsBitNews

2026-01-07 03:23:59

Mars Finance reports that Gemini Institutional Business Director Patrick Liou has released five major predictions for 2026.

The four-year Bitcoin cycle is dead; ETF and institutional adoption are making the market more mature, with volatility decreasing from a historical 80% to 25-40%, and drawdowns only 30% instead of the past 75-90%.
Cryptocurrency will become a bipartisan issue in the 2026 US midterm elections, with the CLARITY Act expected to make breakthroughs.
The crypto prediction market will expand on a large scale, with Polymarket’s growth attracting players like Coinbase.
Digital asset custody companies will merge to survive; MicroStrategy’s huge Q4 loss last year and a 60% plunge in MSTR stock price demonstrate the pressure.
At least one country will sell part of its gold reserves to buy Bitcoin; Germany, Sweden, and the Czech Republic have already publicly discussed BTC as a reserve asset.
Liou believes that 2026 will be driven by institutions, policies, and sovereign capital, rather than speculation cycles.

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