#MyWeekendTradingPlan

Market Sentiment: Offensive or Defensive?

The market is currently in a high-risk "Black Market" scenario. Bitcoin recently experienced a sharp drop from around $80,000 to the $75,000-$77,000 level, resulting in over $2.5 billion in liquidations.

My View: Strategic Defensive. While "dip buyers" are expecting a rebound, macroeconomic pressure stemming from the partial US government shutdown and shifts in Fed dynamics suggests catching the falling knife could be risky. Adopting a defensive stance – seeing a stable base at $75,000 – is the path to follow before going "offensive" next week.

Recovery or Decline: Expect a volatile crab walk. We've seen large long position liquidations that typically lead to a "relief bounce" as short positions take profits, but a full trend reversal is unlikely to occur until Sunday night/Monday morning Asian open.
Tokens on the Watchlist

If you're looking for where the "smart money" is moving during this dip, keep an eye on these:

BTC (Bitcoin): The undisputed king. Everyone is watching if it holds the $75,000 support. If it breaks, $69k is the next psychological station.

SOL (Solana): Down significantly this weekend (testing the $100 level). Solana often leads the market in rebounds due to its high retail liquidity.

JUP (Jupiter): With the "Jupuary" airdrop momentum still fresh, JUP remains a high-beta play for a Solana ecosystem recovery.

DOGE: Interestingly, whale addresses for Dogecoin have stayed stable despite the price dip, suggesting strong conviction and a potential "meme-led" bounce if sentiment shifts.
Hot News & Sudden Events

U.S. Government Shutdown: The partial shutdown that began early Saturday is the primary "black swan" weighing on risk-on assets.

The "Warsh" Factor: Markets are closely monitoring news regarding Fed nominee Kevin Warsh, as any hint of his future policy direction is moving the USD and, by extension, Crypto.

Liquidations: $2.5 billion in longs were wiped out. This "clears the forest," meaning there is less leverage in the system now, which could technically allow for a cleaner move upward if demand returns.
"I'm choosing Defense this weekend. With $2.5B in liquidations and a U.S. government shutdown, I'm watching the $75,000 BTC floor. If we hold through Sunday night, I’ll look to Attack on Monday morning, focusing on high-beta assets like SOL and JUP for a volatility play."

In a market this volatile, "attacking" without a shield is just gambling. After seeing $2.5 billion in liquidations and Bitcoin dipping to the $75,000–$76,000 range this Saturday, my weekend has been all about preservation and patient observation.

1. Market Outlook: Rebound or Decline? 📉 I expect a volatile sideways crawl. While we saw a massive "flush out" of long positions, the partial U.S. government shutdown and the shifting Fed leadership (eyes on Kevin Warsh) are creating a "wait-and-see" mood. I don’t expect a massive rally until the Monday morning Asia open, so I’m holding my breath for a final retest of the $75k floor before looking for a local bottom.

2. Tokens I’m Watching 🔍

$BTC: The $75,000 level is the line in the sand. Holding this is crucial for market sentiment.

$SOL: Currently testing the $100 psychological level. Solana usually bounces the hardest after a liquidation event—keeping a limit order ready.

$XRP: Despite the macro dip, Ripple’s recent DFSA approval in Dubai shows fundamental strength. I’m looking for a steady entry if it stabilizes near $1.50.

$ZK / $ZRO: Watching these "outperformers" that stayed green during the Saturday dip—strength in a sea of red is a huge signal.

3. Hot News to Note 🗞️

The "Long Flush": Over 430,000 traders were liquidated this weekend. This usually marks a "panic bottom," but the thin weekend liquidity makes it unpredictable.

Macro Uncertainty: The U.S. shutdown and high inflation data have traders shifting to a "risk-off" mode, favoring gold and USD temporarily over crypto.

My Plan: I’m keeping 60% in stablecoins, setting limit orders for a potential "wick" down to $74k on BTC, and waiting for the Monday trend confirmation to go full "Attack" mode.

Stay safe and trade smart! 🚀