Predicting the Market's Super Bowl

【Plain Language Introduction】 This article is written by economist Scott Duke Comines, who provides an in-depth analysis of the rise of prediction markets in major events like the Super Bowl. Unlike traditional betting, prediction markets use mechanism incentives and information aggregation to turn collective beliefs into accurate probability signals.
The article discusses their real-time advantages over polls, as well as the design challenges such as insider trading, market volatility, and foreign exchange. As trading volume reaches hundreds of billions, prediction markets have evolved from "second screen" betting games to decision-making tools used by students in scientific, policy, and business fields.
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