HTX DeepThink: Credit Cracks or Policy Shift? Liquidity Sequential Game Will Determine the Next Major Market Movement

Crypto Mars News: HTX DeepThink columnist and HTX Research analyst Chloe (@ChloeTalk1) points out that this week’s true focus in macro pricing is not whether the market is in a bubble, but the sequence of liquidity and credit pressure: whether cracks appear in the credit chain first or the Federal Reserve shifts policy proactively before pressure spreads. This sequence will determine Bitcoin’s next phase—whether it experiences intense volatility with “liquidation first, rescue later” or continues to fluctuate under high interest rates.

First, the Beige Book released early Thursday will provide real feedback from businesses, focusing on orders, financing environment, employment, and price transmission. If the report shows “demand weakening but wages and prices remain sticky,” it suggests high real interest rates may persist longer, exerting downward pressure on Bitcoin valuation. Conversely, if more regions report increased layoffs, tighter financing, and easing price pressures, it will reinforce expectations of slowing growth and open a window for policy easing.

The Challenger job cuts data and initial jobless claims released the same evening serve as forward indicators of the labor market. A significant rise in layoffs and claims typically indicates credit stress beginning to spread to the real economy. Meanwhile, the import price index will influence inflation expectations. A rebound in import prices will tighten policy space; a decline coupled with weakening employment suggests a “cooling growth, easing inflation” scenario, favoring market anticipation of easing. The unemployment rate and non-farm payrolls on Friday will confirm these signals: a notable employment slowdown increases the likelihood of policy shift; if employment remains strong and wages firm, the environment of high real interest rates may continue.

In a “credit breakdown first” scenario, widening high-yield bond spreads and rising financing costs will dominate market demand for cash. Bitcoin, as a liquidity asset available 24/7, is often sold early under pressure to raise dollars, potentially causing a rapid 20% or more correction in the short term, accompanied by negative funding rates, declining open interest, ETF outflows, and slowing stablecoin supply. Conversely, if weak data prompts expectations of policy easing and real yields decline, Bitcoin is more likely to become a high-beta liquidity trading tool, with rebounds typically faster than traditional risk assets, sometimes front-running actual policy implementation.

Currently, the environment is overall neutral to bearish: real yields remain high, ETF outflows continue, stablecoin supply growth slows, and there are no clear signs of liquidity easing. The market seems to be waiting for a catalyst. The combination of this week’s data will determine whether Bitcoin first experiences risk repricing or enters an early liquidity-driven rally. The next major move fundamentally hinges on liquidity sequencing.

Note: This content is not investment advice and does not constitute an offer, solicitation, or recommendation for any investment product.