‍#美伊局势影响

Stock Markets Under Pressure

Global equities experienced sharp fluctuations and declines in major indices as geopolitical risk repriced markets. For example, as oil prices rose and uncertainty increased, US indices, along with other global indicators, showed a sharp decline.

Safe havens (Gold, Oil, and BTC) reacted differently:

Oil prices rose significantly – Brent crude climbed above $80-83 per barrel, particularly due to fears of a supply shock related to the risk of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, which handles about 20% of global crude oil flow.

The sharp increase in energy prices directly impacts input costs and inflation indicators.

Bitcoin showed resilience: After the initial fluctuation, prices rose as a hedge/alternative store of value in an environment of uncertainty, and in some sessions, rose along with other safe assets.

However, the sharp declines immediately following the news highlight the ongoing volatility.
Gold has rallied on safe-haven buying, though its gains have fluctuated as traders weigh the geopolitical premium against changing rate expectations.

Oil arguably leads as the primary risk/inflation driver.

Gold retains traditional safe-haven appeal.

Bitcoin is acting more like a risk alternative hedge, but with higher volatility.

oil drives price risk and inflation expectations; gold is classic store of value; BTC shows safe-haven behavior in select sessions but remains speculative.

If Tensions Escalate — Inflation & Market Expectations

Inflation expectations are rising

Higher oil prices — along with cost pressures in manufacturing indices — signal that market participants expect inflation to stay elevated. This has already been reflected in rising Treasury yields, which often move with inflation expectations and central bank path repricing.

High energy costs contribute to headline inflation by increasing consumer and manufacturing prices.

If this continues, it could indirectly affect core inflation as well (second round effects).

Market pricing of Fed rate cuts has decreased.

Prior to the risk, markets had some expectations of rate cuts later this year. However, following the rise in oil prices and the repricing of inflation, the likelihood of a Fed easing has decreased.

This indicates that Fed officials still believe that cuts are possible if the inflation trend slows, but they are not directly accounting for the impact of the risk.

Traders on financial boards note that geopolitical oil risk makes cuts "less likely" for now.
Will the Fed Delay Interest Rate Cuts?

Yes, there’s a strong tilt toward that outcome if oil and inflation pressures persist.

Elevated inflation expectations from higher energy costs legitimize less accommodative policy.

Central banks often look through temporary oil moves, but persistent shocks make them hesitant to ease prematurely.

Market-implied rate cuts have been repriced lower as a result of geopolitical risk.

Fed officials, while reiterating rate cut possibilities if inflation declines, are not committing to a timeline and have emphasized they must watch inflation and labor markets — a stance consistent with caution over easing in a volatile geopolitical environment.

A short-lived spike may not derail Fed’s medium-term expectations.

Prolonged oil shocks and inflation persistence would likely delay cuts and keep interest rates higher for longer.

Higher inflation expectations make Fed rate cuts less likely in near term.

If tensions escalate, inflation pressures could strengthen, further delaying easing.
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