March 4 Market Overview: US Stocks Suffer Heavy Losses, Cryptocurrencies Show Resilience

Author: Deep Tide TechFlow

U.S. Stocks: Day Four of War, Market Confidence Completely Collapsed

On Tuesday, Wall Street experienced another bleak trading day.

The Dow plunged 403 points (-0.83%) to close at 48,501, the S&P 500 fell 0.94% to 6,816, and the Nasdaq dropped 1.02% to 22,516.

But the numbers hardly reflect the intensity of the day.

During trading, the Dow briefly fell by 1,200 points (-2.6%), the S&P 500 dropped as much as 2.5%, and the Nasdaq tumbled 2.7%, marking the most severe intraday sell-off since early February.

The market is like a frightened bird, triggering massive sell-offs at any sign of disturbance. With the Iran-U.S. war entering its fourth day, Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz, causing oil prices to surge another 8%, and investor panic has reached new heights.

The energy market has gone completely out of control.

WTI crude oil soared $5.82 (+8.2%) to $77.05 per barrel, Brent crude skyrocketed $6.09 (+7.8%) to $83.83 per barrel.

This is the largest single-day increase since February. More frightening is that oil prices have already risen over $17 from last Friday’s $66, nearly a 26% increase.

The Strait of Hormuz— the choke point for 20% of the world’s oil supply— remains effectively closed. Iran has not only blocked the strait but also begun attacking energy infrastructure across the Middle East, including oil fields and tankers in Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

Tuesday afternoon, Trump issued a statement on Truth Social: “In any case, the United States will ensure the free flow of energy worldwide.” He promised that the U.S. Navy would escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz.

This brief reassurance eased market panic—oil prices retreated from intraday highs, and stocks narrowed their decline from 2.5% to about 1%.

But the problem remains severe: if oil prices stay above $80, inflation will spiral out of control again, and the Fed’s rate cut expectations will be completely shattered.

Tuesday was a true “bloodbath” day for the S&P 500, with all 11 sectors closing lower, offering no safe haven.

Major losers:

Materials sector plunged 4.5%, the largest single-day drop since April 2025. Lithium giant Albemarle tumbled 7%; copper miner Freeport-McMoRan fell 4%; gold miner Newmont dropped 7%.

Industrials declined over 2%. Caterpillar fell 3.98%, Boeing down 2.52%.

Healthcare and consumer staples both fell over 2%.

The only bright spot: Target rose 3%, after Q4 earnings beat expectations, with the CEO stating “strong sales rebound in February”; Best Buy surged 9%, despite an unexpected holiday season sales dip, with optimistic Q1 guidance.

Tech stocks continued to collapse: Nvidia down 1.3%; Tesla down 2.7%; software stocks were slaughtered again, with MongoDB downgraded to Neutral by Baird due to AI threats, down over 40% since the start of the year.

The VIX volatility index surged to 25.16 on Tuesday, reaching a new high since November last year.

What does this mean? The market expects extreme volatility in the next 30 days. A VIX over 25 is usually considered a “fear” zone, and over 30 signals “extreme fear.”

Even more alarming, expectations for the war’s duration are worsening. Tuesday morning, Trump warned: “This conflict could last four weeks.”

Four weeks? That’s much longer than the initial market expectation of a “quick, decisive” few days. If the war truly lasts a month, oil could break $100 per barrel, inflation could spiral out of control, and the Fed might not only refrain from cutting rates but be forced to hike them—marking the end of the stock market.

Gold plummeted 4%: dollar strengthening reversed safe-haven trades

Unexpectedly, gold crashed on Tuesday.

Spot gold fell 3.7% in a single day, from a high of $5,400 to about $5,148, the largest drop since a $600 plunge on January 30.

Silver fared even worse, dropping 6%. Platinum fell 10%, palladium down 7%.

Why did safe-haven assets tumble? Because the dollar strengthened.

The dollar index surged past 100 on Tuesday—for the first time since May last year. When the dollar strengthens, dollar-denominated gold and silver tend to fall.

Investors are rushing into the dollar—the ultimate global safe-haven asset. In contrast, traditional safe assets like gold and silver are becoming “liquidity sacrifices”: during market panic, investors sell everything liquid to raise cash.

Cryptocurrency: Resilience Amidst Bloodshed

This is the most surprising story today.

Amid the collapse of U.S. stocks, gold, and the spike in VIX, Bitcoin has shown remarkable resilience.

According to CoinGecko, Bitcoin slightly rose to about $69,413 on Tuesday, up 5.8% in 24 hours, completely reversing the stock market’s plunge.

Ethereum also performed strongly, staying around $2,000. Mainstream coins like Solana and Cardano remained steady.

The total global crypto market cap stabilized at $2.41 trillion, up 0.9% in 24 hours. 24-hour trading volume hit $123 billion, indicating ample market liquidity.

Bitcoin’s market cap reached $1.36 trillion, with a 56.7% market share. This suggests that during turbulent times, funds are flowing into Bitcoin as a “crypto safe haven.”

Why is crypto so resilient?

This defies traditional understanding. In past crises, cryptocurrencies always tumbled along with tech stocks because they were seen as “high-risk assets.”

But this time is different. Several key factors support the crypto market:

“Digital gold” narrative re-emerges.

The crash in gold actually makes Bitcoin’s “digital gold” narrative more credible.

The problem with traditional gold is that it remains influenced by the dollar’s strength. When the dollar rises, gold tends to fall because it’s dollar-priced.

But Bitcoin is different. It’s a true “borderless currency”—not tied to any single fiat currency and not automatically depreciating when the dollar strengthens.

Against the backdrop of Middle East turmoil and accelerating de-dollarization narratives, Bitcoin’s unique properties are being re-recognized.

Long-term holders are stopping selling.

On-chain data shows that long-term holders (wallets holding over 365 days) have nearly ceased selling.

In early February, long-term holders’ 30-day rolling net sell volume reached 243,737 BTC. By March 1, this had dropped sharply to 31,967 BTC—a decline of 87%.

What does this mean? Panic selling has ended, and the market is bottoming out.

Miner selling pressure eases.

Bitcoin miners’ selling pressure has also significantly eased. On February 8, net miner sell volume peaked at 4,718 BTC, but by March 1, it had fallen to 837 BTC.

Although declining hash rate (some miners shutting down) raises concerns, analysts note: miners are not surrendering but engaging in strategic diversification.

Whales quietly accumulating.

Super whales holding 100,000–1 million BTC increased holdings by about 14,000 BTC on February 19-20, with no signs of selling since.

Small whales holding 1,000–10,000 BTC have been accumulating since February 25, increasing holdings from 4.22 million BTC to 4.23 million BTC.

Smart money is buying against the trend.

Amid widespread pessimism, Fundstrat star analyst Tom Lee offers an optimistic outlook.

On Wednesday, Lee told CNBC: “The worst selling will happen this week. I expect March to be a ‘rising month’ for stocks.”

He also added on social media: “We understand war headlines make investors nervous, but we expect stocks to rise in March: led by MAG7, software stocks, and cryptocurrencies (BTC, ETH).”

Lee’s logic: cryptocurrencies and tech stocks have already experienced significant corrections and may be in the “final bottoming phase,” leading to a rally in April.

Historical data supports Lee’s view. Wells Fargo data shows: after major geopolitical conflicts, the S&P 500 typically rebounds within two weeks, with an average gain of 1% over three months.

Bitcoin technical analysis: $65,000 is key

Currently, Bitcoin is oscillating between $65,000 and $68,000.

Key support levels:

$65,000: If broken, could trigger a sell-off toward $64,600 or even $64,000.

$63,000: Absolute bottom; if broken, look toward $60,000.

Key resistance levels:

$68,000: Tested multiple times; a breakout could trigger FOMO.

$70,000: Psychological threshold; a break above could target $74,000–$75,000.

Technical analyst Michael Van De Poppe states: “Bitcoin must hold $65,000. If it does, targeting above $70,000 is only a matter of time.”

Main question: How long will the war last?

The market is now only focused on one question: how long will the war continue?

Trump warned Tuesday: “This conflict could last four weeks.”

If it really lasts four weeks: oil prices will break $100, inflation will spiral, and the Fed might be forced to hike rates, leading to a bigger stock market crash.

If it lasts only a few days: oil prices will fall back, inflation will ease, stocks will rebound, and cryptocurrencies might follow.

Fundstrat’s Tom Lee bets on the latter: “The worst selling will end this week, and March will be a rising month.”

Legendary investor Steve Eisman said last week: “I won’t change any trades because of this conflict.”

But the market clearly disagrees.

VIX surges, materials sector crashes, gold collapses—these are market screams: “We are scared!”

The only exception is cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin, amid stock market crashes, gold crashes, and VIX spikes, has shown surprising resilience. This signals: the crypto market is maturing, evolving from “pure risk asset” to “alternative safe haven.”

Fear index at 10, long-term holders halting selling, whales quietly accumulating— all historical data point to one conclusion: a bottoming process is underway.

As for whether it can rebound above $70,000 in March?

The answer will be revealed in the coming days.