A Different Perspective on the Bitcoin Cycle: Has the Bull Market Truly Started?

A very thought-provoking fact: In Bitcoin’s history, there has never been a complete bull market cycle when the PMI index has remained below 50 throughout that period.

A PMI below 50 indicates a contracting economic environment – declining manufacturing, tight liquidity, and a prevailing defensive mindset. In such a context, capital usually favors safety over risky assets. This raises an important question: 👉 Has Bitcoin’s strong price surge in recent years truly been a “proper” bull market? “Quasi Bull Market” – A Partial Bull Market? Analyst Sminston introduced the concept of a “quasi bull market.” This term reasonably describes the recent cycle. From a price perspective, Bitcoin has clearly experienced a strong upward cycle. Investors still made significant profits if they bought at the bottom and held. But from a macroeconomic perspective: PMI mostly below 50 Interest rates maintained at high levels Global liquidity has not truly exploded Monetary policy remains tight The macro backdrop still resembles a bear market. In other words: 📈 Prices increased based on technical structures, but 🌎 the economic environment does not support a sustainable super cycle of growth. Is the Real Bull Market Still Ahead? History shows that Bitcoin’s most powerful growth cycles typically coincide with: PMI above 50 (economic expansion) Abundant liquidity Loose monetary policy Widespread risk-on sentiment When these factors align, new speculative capital truly explodes. That’s when a “full bull market” occurs – where prices not only rise but increase exponentially. If this reasoning is correct, then the recent cycle might just be a “prelude bull market.” A complete bull market – characterized by: Halving events, Liquidity cycles, And global economic expansion — may still be on the horizon. What Does This Mean for Investors? Do not confuse a price recovery with a long-term structural bull market. Monitoring PMI and global liquidity cycles is just as important as technical analysis. If PMI returns above 50 and remains stable, it could be a confirming signal of a genuine growth phase. Markets always anticipate the majority’s expectations. Sometimes, the greatest danger isn’t a market decline, but believing you’ve reached the peak when a larger cycle has yet to begin. Bitcoin’s true bull market… may still be ahead.