‍#加密市场上涨

US Midterm Elections Could Bring a Recovery to Bitcoin

The US midterm elections could be the next catalyst to kickstart a recovery in crypto and stock markets.

Historically, strong recoveries in stocks and Bitcoin (BTC) have followed US midterm election cycles. This could create a recovery window for risky assets after the 2026 election.

In the 12 months following US midterm elections, the S&P 500 has risen an average of 19%, while Bitcoin has gained an average of 54% in the three years following a midterm election on record.

The year following the US midterm elections could be the "strongest window" in the cycle. Markets have historically rallied after election results removed a major source of political uncertainty.
"Historically, markets have experienced strong rallies once election results are clear and uncertainty is resolved."

Bitcoin has recorded negative returns in previous midterm election years, including pullbacks of 56% in 2014, 73% in 2018, and 64% in 2022. However, historical patterns have indicated a recovery in subsequent years.
This comes approximately eight months before the November 3rd US midterm elections, which will determine the 120th Congress.

The short-term market direction will be largely determined by the conflict involving the US, Israel, and Iran. Further increases could push oil prices higher, while existing assets could remain under pressure.

Oil spill increases market stress
According to data, the price of crude oil briefly rose to $95 per barrel on Thursday, the 13th day of the conflict.

The price increase followed reports that Iran had increased its attacks on energy products and that two fuel tankers had been blown up by Iranian boats.

A spokesman for the Iranian military command said that the news had been released, explaining why the US was preparing for a 200-year increase in the world's oil price per barrel due to instability.
This surge occurred a day after the International Energy Agency announced that member countries would be releasing 400 million barrels of emergency stockpiles. This was the largest coordinated pull on record.

The cryptocurrency's recovery depends on resolving the conflict. The continued disruptions to oil supply could mean that it "carries a capacity to perform better as an oil hedge."

This cryptocurrency's higher beta profile means that if liquidity conditions stabilize after the political turmoil subsides, its upside potential could still surpass its traditional feel.
Global Markets in a "Wait-and-See" Period Amid Geopolitical Escalation

Ongoing developments in the Middle East, uncertainty regarding energy supply, and military escalations continue to be the main determinants of global risk appetite, leaving markets in a "wait-and-see phase where political and geopolitical risks intersect."

Currently, BTC is repeatedly fluctuating below the $70,000 level. This indicates that market activity is dominated by liquidity sweeps both above and below.

Analysts said that the market structure suggests Bitcoin will remain in this range "until macro events provide clearer directional signals."
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