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94% win rate on my options trades over 10 years.
Here is exactly how.
When the market is expensive:
I de-risk.
Close sold puts.
Take profits on calls.
Maybe buy bonds.
Keep assignment value under 50%.
Let the herd chase calls at the top.
When the market is cheap:
I sell 2 year portfolio secured puts for top dollar.
Everyone is panicking and buying puts
I sell them those puts.
I take the premium and buy shares + calls.
Assignment value goes to 65%+
The herd buys puts for top dollar near bottoms.
I sell the puts for top dollar dear the bottoms.
(max premium received at compelling time)
The doesn't want calls near the bottom.
I will be happy to buy dirt cheap calls near the bottom.
(I am not claiming I can time exact bottoms & tops BTW, nobody can. I do it when the valuations and overall thesis makes sense)
Every single time they pay top dollar for what I want to sell.
Every single time I buy what they are dumping at the bottom.
That is not luck.
That is just understanding human psychology better than the herd...