What are the characteristics of Bitcoin bear market bottoms?

Why I believe the 6-7 million dollar level is not the bottom is simple—Bitcoin bottoms are not sharp V-shaped; they form a sideways consolidation zone.

2015 Bear Market Bottom
Figure 1

2018 Bear Market Bottom
Figure 2

2022 Bear Market Bottom
Figure 3

Reviewing previous cycles, we discover striking similarities.

In the late stages of bear markets, there's often a final capitulation that breaks psychological barriers. Subsequently, downside momentum weakens, the market enters consolidation, followed by a rally wave that ends the bear market and initiates a bull market. Every bear market bottom follows this pattern.

This is actually not coincidence—the 4-year cycle continues to play a role.

Therefore, there's no need to rush into bottom-fishing. The lowest point of a bear market is most likely a consolidation zone at the bottom, forming a rounded or U-shaped bottom. Capitulation takes time.

If you lack confidence in bottom-fishing, wait for a consolidation period, then enter when the right side starts rallying. That's when you have a clear bottoming signal.

How to define bull vs. bear markets?

Falls for a week, rises back in three days = bull market
Rises for a week, falls back in one day = bear market

So everyone already has a clear sense of whether we're in a bull or bear market now#创作者冲榜