Bitcoin Bull Trap Warning in Advance, Short Logic Continues to Realize Profits | Special Analysis

Last week’s weekly report clearly indicated that the market was in a trap of false rallies, advising investors not to blindly chase gains or add positions, and maintaining the bearish trend outlook. This week’s market movements have validated this view—Bitcoin failed to break through the resistance zone effectively, followed by a clear decline, and the bearish logic remains intact.

Below, we present this week’s market forecast, strategic operation suggestions, and a review of last week’s trades to help readers navigate the complex market and make precise decisions.

Weekly Trading Summary:

• HYPE short-term trading performance: Last week completed one short-term long position (1x leverage), successfully achieving approximately 4.41% profit. (See Part Two for details)

• BTC short-term trading performance: Last week completed one short position (1x leverage), successfully achieving approximately 5.37% profit. (See Part Four for details)

• HYPE forecast and operational strategy for this week: See Parts One and Two.

• BTC market trend forecast and medium- to short-term strategies: See Parts Three and Four.

• Core viewpoint validation: Last week, Bitcoin remained in a bearish trend pattern, fully aligning with the forecast, and the false rally warning was effectively realized.

Part One: HYPE Forecast and Strategy

1. Core Viewpoint This Week:

Based on the current structure, we judge that the recent hourly downtrend, initiated from the high point around March 19 (near endpoint 27), is likely to conclude soon. The subsequent movement depends on whether the price can effectively break free from the central zone C to confirm the end of the correction. A successful breakout would signal a clearer trend continuation. We expect wide-range oscillations this week, so flexible and cautious trading is advised.

2. HYPE Upside Risk Warning:

It’s important to note that while HYPE’s movement has some independence, it still cannot be completely detached from Bitcoin’s overall environment. If Bitcoin experiences a significant correction later, it could drag down HYPE’s rebound momentum. Investors should stay alert and prepare for risks.

3. Operational Strategy This Week:

Use 30% of the position, set stop-loss points based on support and resistance levels, and look for “spread” trading opportunities (using 30-minute or 60-minute cycles). Keep positions light and flexible, strictly adhere to stop-loss rules.

Part Two: HYPE Last Week’s Structural Analysis and Short-term Trade Review

1. Market Dynamics and Opportunity Tracking:

Since late February, we have continuously monitored and analyzed HYPE, with each judgment validated by market movements. Key reviews:

• Feb 23 Weekly: First indicated HYPE might enter an investment window, noting the market was in wave II correction, with a forecast of wave III’s main rally soon.

• Mar 3 Weekly: Identified the Feb 24 low at $25.60 as a potential wave III start, confirming a trend reversal point.

• Mar 9 Weekly: Noted that the price had broken multiple moving averages on the daily chart, entering a consolidation phase, with a quick rise expected after completion.

• Mar 16 Weekly: Indicated the market was in wave III, building an upward central zone (B), with a high probability of wide oscillations after completion.

2. Daily Chart Structure Overview (Post Jan 21):

The current daily trend shows a clear three-wave advance:

• Wave I (Impulse): From Jan 21 low of $20.46 to Feb 3 high of $38.41, lasting 14 days, with a maximum gain of 87.73%.

• Wave II (Correction): From Feb 3 high to Feb 24 low of $25.60, lasting 20 days, with a maximum decline of 33.35%.

• Wave III (Main Uptrend): From Feb 24 low to present, 27 days so far, with a maximum gain of 71.02%, indicating the main trend remains intact.

3. Intraday Structure (Post Mar 16):

HYPE 60-minute chart:

• The structure from Mar 9 to 15 shows a buildup of an upward central zone (B), nearing completion, consistent with prior forecasts.

• Internal segments:

a. From endpoint 24, the previously built upward central zone (B) is confirmed complete. The subsequent complex structure comprises 8 segments: 24-25, 25-26, 26-27, 27-28, 28-29, 29-30, 30-31, 31-32. As of analysis, segments 31-32 are ongoing, with clear hierarchical structure.

b. The segments 24-25, 25-26, 26-27 form a clear upward move.

c. Segments 27-28 through 31-32 form a correction, showing oscillatory convergence.

d. Overlapping segments 28-29, 29-30, 30-31 form a downward central zone ©, the core of this correction.

4. Short-term Trading Review (1x leverage, Mar 16–22):

Based on our proprietary spread and momentum models, combined with the upward structure forecast, we executed one short-term long position, earning 4.41%, strictly following the plan.

• Entry: Confirmed after upward central zone B was completed, with price breaking above resistance at about $38.54, and model signals indicating bullish momentum. Entered at $38.73 with 30% position.

• Exit: When the spread model signaled a top and a strong bearish divergence with a “strong top pattern” on candlesticks, near $40.44, we closed the position, locking in profit.

• Summary: Achieved approximately 4.41% profit, with entry and exit supported by model signals, demonstrating effective strategy execution.

Part Three: BTC Forecast and Strategy (Mar 23–29)

1. Market Structure Analysis (Post Feb 6 Low):

Using the 4-hour cycle:

• Maintain the previous core view: Bitcoin’s rally from the Feb 6 low (~$60,000) is a super-overbought rebound within a larger wave C correction, with limited upside, followed by a wave C-3 decline.

• Current structure: The short-term upward pattern from Feb 24 has been broken, with bulls weakening at key levels. If support is not reclaimed, the price may test the lower boundary of the upward channel since Feb 6. Breaking that support would increase the likelihood of ending the rebound near $76,000 and resuming a downtrend toward $60,000, intensifying market pressure. Overall, the market remains in a bearish dominant pattern.

• Conditions for wave C-3: If price falls below $60,000, wave C-3 will be confirmed, opening further downside targets, requiring preemptive risk management.

2. Forecast and Key Levels:

• Range-bound oscillation expected, focus on the support/resistance near the channel lower boundary.

• Resistance zones:

  • First: $69,500–$71,500 (short-term resistance zone)

  • Second: $74,500–$76,000 (near Nov 2025 low, important for medium-term bearish strategy)

• Support zones:

  • First: $65,000–$66,000

  • Second: $60,000–$62,500 (Feb 6 low; if broken, bearish trend intensifies)

  • Third: around $57,400

3. Trading Strategy (excluding unexpected news):

a. Medium-term:

• Based on daily chart and position monitoring model, currently holding 60% short from $89,000 (Jan 28). As of last close (~$67,865), profit is about 23.75%, max profit 32.58%. Maintain the position unless breakout signals occur.

• If price breaks above $74,500, reduce to 40%.

• If price sustains above the “bull-bear” zone, close all short positions.

b. Short-term:

• Use 30% of positions, set stop-loss based on support/resistance, and look for spread trading opportunities on 30/60-minute cycles. Strictly follow stop-loss rules.

c. A/B Short-term Plans:

Given the overall bearish trend, adhere to “shorting on rebounds” principle. To adapt to market evolution and signals:

• Plan A: Short on resistance during rebounds:

  • Entry: When price rebounds to $69,500–$71,500 and signals show resistance, establish 15% short.

  • Add: If resistance at $74,500–$76,000 is hit, add another 15%.

  • Stop-loss: Set above $77,000, strictly enforced.

  • Exit: Near key supports with model signals, locking profits.

• Plan B: Short on breakdown:

  • Entry: When price breaks below channel lower boundary and retests it without recovery, establish 30% short.

  • Stop-loss: 2% above entry price.

  • Exit: At support levels with model confirmation.

Part Four: BTC Short-term Trade Review (Mar 16–23)

1. Trade Recap:

Following our proprietary spread and momentum models, we executed one short position, earning 5.37%, with disciplined execution.

• Entry: When price approached ~$76,000, models signaled a top (green dots), with momentum divergence. Entered at $74,246 with 30% position.

• Exit: When price stabilized near ~$69,000 and models signaled bottom, at $70,257, we closed the position, locking in gains.

• Summary: Successful trade with accurate top/bottom signals, overall good execution.

2. Mid-term Position:

Maintained the original 60% short from $89,000, with current profit of about 23.75%, maximum profit of 32.58%, overall stable.

Final Reminder:

Risk management is the foundation of consistent trading profits. Strictly follow these rules:

1. Set initial stop-loss immediately upon opening.

2. When profit reaches 1%, move stop-loss to breakeven.

3. When profit reaches 2%, move stop-loss to 1% profit level.

4. Continue to trail stop-loss by 1% for each additional 1% profit.

Market volatility is high; all analysis and strategies are based on personal technical judgment and are for reference only. They do not constitute investment advice. Invest cautiously.