Core situation assessment: Is it a "bottoming out" or a "downward correction"?
• Short-term support confirmation: ETH spiked and rebounded around $2,962, indicating that there is indeed strong buying interest from long positions and short position liquidations in that range.
• Indicator repair requirement: 15-minute/1-hour KDJ is oversold at a low level. Technically, a pullback is needed to digest the deviation rate from the sharp drop in the early morning.
• Trend determination: rebound rather than reversal. Overall, the 4-hour and daily levels still lean bearish. Therefore, the next strategy is: short positions at high levels > support level for short-term long positions.
Shorting again at a high position (main strategy, following the mid-term trend)
The next ideal secondary short point will slightly shift downwards:
• First resistance zone: $3,010 - $3,025 (1 hour Bollinger middle band).
• Second resistance zone: $3,040 - $3,055 (near the starting point of the fall in the early morning).
• If the price rebounds to around $3,025 and shows an upper shadow, you can re-enter a short position (the size can be set to 1/2 of the previous one).
• Stop Loss: Set at $3,075 (must stop loss before breaking the previous high).
• Take profit: Looking back at the $2,950 area of concentrated long position liquidation again.
3. Risk/Opportunity Weight Before Christmas
• 24-hour risk: If it falls below $2,950, it will trigger the liquidation of the previous $850 million long positions we calculated. At that time, the market will drop vertically, directly looking at $2,880.
• Christmas Market: Historically, there is often a behavior of "inducing a short" followed by a rally on Christmas Eve (23-24).
Core Observation: Looking for the "Golden Pit"
Liquidity hunting (high win rate pin bar long)
• Optimal entry point: $2,880 - $2,915
• Logic: * Dense liquidation area: The $2,950 we mentioned before is just the first line of defense. The real bullish last line of defense and dense liquidation area is around $2,880 - $2,900.
• Daily level support: Referring to the daily K-line, the lower band of the Bollinger Bands is currently extending upwards, forming strong support around $2,880.
• Operating suggestion: Do not place orders directly, but wait for the price to rapidly spike and fall below $2,950. Enter the market at market price when it quickly reduces volume around $2,900, or even when a long lower shadow appears in 15 minutes.
• Stop Loss: $2,840 (if it falls below the previous low, the Christmas rally is basically declared over).
• Target level: Revisiting $3,050.
Confirm reversal (right side safely add long)
• Confirm entry point: $3,035 - $3,045 (after stabilizing)
• Logic: * Breakthrough Resistance: The starting point of this downward correction is at $3,060. If the price can recover $3,030 and stabilize at the 1-hour level, it indicates that the breakdown is a complete "Bear Trap."
• Christmas rally begins: Holding steady here usually signifies the official start of the Christmas rally, aiming directly for $3,300.
• Stop loss: $2,990.
• Target price: $3,200 - $3,350.
$ETH #今日你看涨还是看跌？ #加密市场小幅回暖 #2025Gate年度账单 #BTC行情分析
• Short-term support confirmation: ETH spiked and rebounded around $2,962, indicating that there is indeed strong buying interest from long positions and short position liquidations in that range.
• Indicator repair requirement: 15-minute/1-hour KDJ is oversold at a low level. Technically, a pullback is needed to digest the deviation rate from the sharp drop in the early morning.
• Trend determination: rebound rather than reversal. Overall, the 4-hour and daily levels still lean bearish. Therefore, the next strategy is: short positions at high levels > support level for short-term long positions.
Shorting again at a high position (main strategy, following the mid-term trend)
The next ideal secondary short point will slightly shift downwards:
• First resistance zone: $3,010 - $3,025 (1 hour Bollinger middle band).
• Second resistance zone: $3,040 - $3,055 (near the starting point of the fall in the early morning).
• If the price rebounds to around $3,025 and shows an upper shadow, you can re-enter a short position (the size can be set to 1/2 of the previous one).
• Stop Loss: Set at $3,075 (must stop loss before breaking the previous high).
• Take profit: Looking back at the $2,950 area of concentrated long position liquidation again.
3. Risk/Opportunity Weight Before Christmas
• 24-hour risk: If it falls below $2,950, it will trigger the liquidation of the previous $850 million long positions we calculated. At that time, the market will drop vertically, directly looking at $2,880.
• Christmas Market: Historically, there is often a behavior of "inducing a short" followed by a rally on Christmas Eve (23-24).
Core Observation: Looking for the "Golden Pit"
Liquidity hunting (high win rate pin bar long)
• Optimal entry point: $2,880 - $2,915
• Logic: * Dense liquidation area: The $2,950 we mentioned before is just the first line of defense. The real bullish last line of defense and dense liquidation area is around $2,880 - $2,900.
• Daily level support: Referring to the daily K-line, the lower band of the Bollinger Bands is currently extending upwards, forming strong support around $2,880.
• Operating suggestion: Do not place orders directly, but wait for the price to rapidly spike and fall below $2,950. Enter the market at market price when it quickly reduces volume around $2,900, or even when a long lower shadow appears in 15 minutes.
• Stop Loss: $2,840 (if it falls below the previous low, the Christmas rally is basically declared over).
• Target level: Revisiting $3,050.
Confirm reversal (right side safely add long)
• Confirm entry point: $3,035 - $3,045 (after stabilizing)
• Logic: * Breakthrough Resistance: The starting point of this downward correction is at $3,060. If the price can recover $3,030 and stabilize at the 1-hour level, it indicates that the breakdown is a complete "Bear Trap."
• Christmas rally begins: Holding steady here usually signifies the official start of the Christmas rally, aiming directly for $3,300.
• Stop loss: $2,990.
• Target price: $3,200 - $3,350.
$ETH #今日你看涨还是看跌？ #加密市场小幅回暖 #2025Gate年度账单 #BTC行情分析
