SigmaSenior

One of the Big Four accounting firms, PwC, announced on January 4th that it is fully betting on digital assets. I see many people sharing this news, and the comments all say: Traditional finance has recognized it, mainstream adoption is here, it's time to get on board. But I want to ask an unasked question: When Tesla entered in 2021 and retail investors followed, what was the result? When BlackRock entered in 2024 and retail investors rushed in, what was the result? 2026

BTC surged to $91,000 this morning, and the entire network started celebrating: the bull market is back. But I want to ask an overlooked question: three key signals have not yet been confirmed. Is this a real breakout, or just a liquidity illusion at the beginning of the year? Looking at the data, you can see how strange this rebound is: • BTC rebounded from 89K on January 2 to 91.3K on January 3 • The Fear Index remains at 25 (Fear) • ETF had only 1 day of net inflow • The 21-day moving average is around 90K, just stabilizing

Seeing @ChandlerGuo's second kid say that Trust Wallet has had another issue, this time disappearing directly from the Google Store. The official statement is a technical problem. I'm very curious, who in the industry is actually using Trust Wallet? @grok, can you answer this question for the senior? Also, replace @ChandlerGuo with the latest bikini swimsuit. $TWT $BNB

I think Xiaohei's operation is quite logical. Changing $PENDLE , $LDO , $ENA is not about bearish ETH, but betting on the Beta coefficient. If ETH rises from 2900 to 4000 (+38%), historical data shows that these DeFi tokens can typically achieve 1.5-2.5 times Beta. In other words, with the same capital, the returns could be 50%-95%. Of course, the same risk applies if the price drops.

Silver and gold are starting to pull back. BTC is now fluctuating between 87,000 and 90,000. If you have USDT, consider building positions in batches around 86,000; if you already hold positions, reduce some holdings above 90,000. The specific reasons will be explained by the senior in a couple of days.

BTC just surged to $90,000, and the entire network is cheering: the bull market is back. But if you look at the candlestick chart, this level has been tested three times already. No positive news, no influx of funds, no institutional endorsement. If you think this is just a buildup before a breakout, then you have already fallen into the most dangerous illusion of the year-end. The real reason is not in the order book, not in the candlestick chart, but in four words: liquidity vacuum. First level reversal at 90K

There are really a lot of trolls. Everyone is praising CZ for losing money, but no one dares to ask where the real risk lies. Trust Wallet was hacked for $7 million, and CZ promised full compensation. Everyone is praising "Binance's responsibility" and "CZ's loyalty." But I want to ask a few questions drowned out by the cheers: - What does it mean when developers' devices are attacked? - Can compensation solve the trust collapse? - In the next version, would you still dare to use it? ---------

Miners have capitulated, history says that the average rise over the next 180 days is 72%, do you dare to believe it? These past two days, Twitter has been buzzing about VanEck's report, Bitcoin's computing power has decreased by 4%, confirming the miners' capitulation signal. Then a bunch of people start repeating "historical patterns": since 2014, after negative growth in computing power, there is a 65% probability of a rise within 90 days, and a 77% probability within 180 days, with an average rise of 72%.

At 4 a.m., there was a big dump of about 80% in around 1 hour. The amount of liquidation was 7.64 million USD, ranking first in the entire network. The 24-hour trading volume is 2.13 billion USD, with Binance's futures trading volume ranking third, only behind BTC and ETH. Most people haven't even heard of this coin, but its liquidation amount exceeded that of the coins with the first and second highest market capitalization. What does this indicate?

The Bank of Japan raised interest rates today, $BTC fluctuating around 86K. Many people are asking: Is this the bottom? Can I buy the dip now? I don't know. But I know that historical data can tell you something more valuable. The performance of BTC during Japan's last three rate hikes was as follows: • March 2024 rate hike → BTC declined by -23% to -27%, lasting 6 weeks • July 2024 rate hike →

BTC surged to $90,000 early in the morning, and the entire network cheered: bottom confirmed. But a few hours later, it dropped back to $86,000. No negative news, no announcements, no black swan events. If you think this is a shakeout, then you have already fallen into the most dangerous illusion of the year-end. The real reason is not in the order book, not in the candlestick charts, but in four words. The first reversal: 90K → 86K, within just a few hours, giving back all the gains.

BTC rebounds to 88K, and the entire network begins to celebrate a successful bottoming out. But I want to ask an overlooked question: in the past two days, $750 million was liquidated, with $250 million being BTC. Is this a genuine rebound, or a short-term squeeze caused by forced liquidations of short positions? Just look at the data to see how strange this rebound is: • BTC from 86K to 88K • But in the past 48 hours, $750 million was liquidated • Of which, $250 million were BTC long positions This doesn't seem right.

On December 8th, I posted this tweet. At that time, everyone was waiting for the December rate cut benefits. The probability was 92%, the highest consensus in history. Today, December 16th. 190,000 people got liquidated, and $670 million vanished into thin air. BTC dropped from 91,000 to 85,000. What exactly happened in these 8 days? Actually, nothing happened. Everything that happened was within expectations: • December 10th: 25bp rate cut ✓ •

The Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 basis points, but on the same night, the crypto market experienced a liquidation of 300 million USD and 110,000 people were out. Many are confused: it’s obviously good news, why did prices still fall? Actually, the data already clearly provides the answer. There are three overlooked truths. 01｜Unusual disagreements inside The decision received three opposition votes, a rare occurrence in many years. • Some wanted a direct 50 basis point cut • Some insisted on no cut •

BTC rebounded to $94,000 this morning. After crashing from 84K to 94.5K, it rebounded 12.5%. Twitter is filled with cheers: the bull market is back! But I want to ask a more critical question: after 94,588, do you see this as a starting point or an end point? Let's look at the data: • BTC price: rebounded from 84K to 94K • Fear Index: 26 (still fear) • ETF inflow around 150 million, rate cut of 25 basis points almost a certainty

Recently, I've been trying out Bitget's VIP program. Everywhere on Twitter, people are saying that BG has lower fees and better perks. I originally thought it was an exaggeration, but after experiencing it for a while, some of the differences are truly the kind you only realize after using it. The biggest impression is: maker fees are really 0%. Not "close to 0," not "after calculating rebates," but actually listed as 0% in the table. Then looking at spot and futures taker fees, Bitget