CryptoBully

My base case for $BTC
Path and exact levels not that important in the long run apart from the immediate S/R levels
Key points:
1. Downside retests have not worked for a while
2. $85k is the logical lower high from our previous value generated before collapsing further on extensive selling but bear market bottoms take months, not weeks
3. A break above our current value area near $72k easily grants easy passage towards the $85k region regardless so that's your long trade
4. Break below value means low 50s at the minimum so there's two short trades (another deviation at VaH now down to 65k or so

Found support at the VWAP bands near 65.5k as expected
Think $BTC has more time in this range and the local quick long opp is done as we did not had spot follow through with that local SFP

$BTC has been very simple to trade recently
For now:
1. Rejected from our Weekly Level + std dev band
2. Sitting at VaH + VWAP band
3. Break below 70 here warrants a move towards $66k near VaLs and the Monthly Open
Trade the range until it breaks. I'll update the trade on TG

If there is one reversal setup I look to trade near market bottoms, it has to be this. Simple price action that provides good RR
Detailed breakdown + stop placement🧵:

1) Understanding the overall market
It is important to be inlined with how the market is doing generally. If we are in a trending environment it is much better to accumulate on dips and hold for longer then it is to look for scalps.

2) Waiting for trade to come to you
Typically in ranges, when price trades into one extreme, you look to fade it and target the next end of the range. Your invalidation in this case is price finding acceptance outside of the range on higher time frames such has H4 of Daily.

3) Entry confirmation
Waiting for your confirmation (can be orderflow, price action, footprints or anything you use), can interfere with the RR and can also make you miss a couple trades, so you have to backtest this according to your system and whether you should start scaling in when prices hits your POI (point of interest) or wait for some confluence

4) Execution
Entry closes to the point where you can be wrong (Increases RR), invalidation below the recent low.
I personally go risk free or take partials at 1R depending on the overall market, once your target hits trade is done and you don't hold speculating for a breakout

Closing out this month of trading
You know what they say about slow and steady. Been a good but brutal and exhausting month
Shared like 90% of all my trades publicly as well this month

When markets are trending it is much more simple to use EMA crosses + demand for context and get in using PA for continuation
However, entering at start of the trends if one can identify them provide the best RR
Below are some of my fav setups I look for, for continuation: