#比特币跌破六万五美元 Why Did Bitcoin Suddenly Crash? How Does This Drop Differ from Past Crashes? Will It Keep Falling? Is It Time to Buy the Dip? Today’s article avoids crypto jargon and hype, using simple language to analyze the true reasons behind the current crash, compare it with four epic historical crashes, objectively predict future trends, and end with key warnings. Whether you're a crypto participant or a spectator, this is worth reading to avoid pitfalls.
1. First, Understand: What Exactly Are Bitcoin Crash + Liquidation?
Let’s start with two core concepts for beginners. Understand these before diving into further analysis, and avoid blindly following the crowd:
Bitcoin Crash: As a virtual currency without physical backing or regulatory safety net, Bitcoin’s price is entirely driven by market sentiment, capital flows, and macro policies. Volatility is extreme; daily drops of over 8% or 10% are common. From its historical peak of $126,000 in October 2025, it has fallen to around $62,000 now, a total decline of over 48%, with more than half of its market value evaporated.
Liquidation: Many in the crypto world use leverage trading—for example, using 1,000 yuan of capital and borrowing 10 times leverage, effectively buying Bitcoin with 10,000 yuan. If the price rises, profits multiply; if it falls, losses do too. Once Bitcoin drops by 10%, the 1,000 yuan is wiped out, and the platform forcibly liquidates the position (“liquidation”). If the decline is larger, investors may owe money to the platform. This is a key reason why many people are “debt-ridden overnight” this time.
In simple terms: Bitcoin is inherently a high-risk speculative asset. Adding leverage doubles the risk. During a crash, liquidation becomes highly probable.
2. Comparing with 4 Epic Past Crashes: Data Tells the Story
Looking back over its 10+ year history, every surge has been followed by a dramatic crash, often involving large-scale liquidations. We selected four representative crashes and compared them with the current one. Data reveals some key patterns:
From historical comparisons, we can identify three main rules to avoid many pitfalls:
Commonality of Crashes: Each crash involves three main factors—“macro policies + capital flight + emotional panic”—and all are accompanied by a cascade effect of high-leverage liquidations—selling as prices fall, causing further declines in a vicious cycle. This is the core logic behind crypto crashes.
Notable Differences: Past crashes were often triggered by single black swan events (like pandemics or exchange bankruptcies), whereas the current crash results from multiple negative factors stacking up. Bitcoin’s market cap is larger, and institutional participation is higher. ETF fund outflows are a major driver, making the decline potentially more severe and prolonged.
Rebound Patterns: Historically, Bitcoin has rebounded after crashes, sometimes reaching new highs (e.g., after the 2018 crash, it rose to $69,000 in 2021; after the 2022 crash, it hit $126,000 in 2025). However, rebounds tend to be slow (usually 1-2 years) and require no ongoing negative pressures.
3. The Truth Behind the Current Crash: Multiple Negative Factors, Not Coincidence
Many think this crash was accidental, but combined with recent market dynamics, it’s a concentrated outbreak of long-term negative factors, each deadly:
- Macro Policy Negative: The Fed’s hawkish expectation of “no rate cuts in 2026” reversed the loose monetary logic that supported Bitcoin earlier this year. Global risk assets are being sold off indiscriminately. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen explicitly said the U.S. government cannot rescue cryptocurrencies, shattering investors’ “market rescue” illusions and accelerating capital outflows.
- Continuous Capital Outflows: Institutional funds were the main support during Bitcoin’s rise, but since October 2025, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF funds have been flowing out by billions monthly. In January 2026 alone, outflows exceeded $3 billion. Interest from institutions is waning, removing key buying support.
- Leverage Liquidation Effect: The crypto market’s leverage is extremely high—Bitcoin’s leverage ratio once exceeded 15%. Once prices break key support levels, massive liquidations trigger further price drops, creating a “kill everyone” cascade that worsens the market collapse.
- Failed Safe-Haven Narrative: Bitcoin has long been promoted as “digital gold” to hedge inflation, but during this global turmoil, it behaved more like a high-risk asset, falling alongside tech stocks. Its “safe-haven” label has been shattered, destroying investor confidence.
- Regulatory Tightening: Global crypto regulation is intensifying. The U.S. SEC is cracking down on tokenized securities, the EU is pushing out non-compliant platforms. Institutional concerns grow, further limiting Bitcoin’s upside potential. Market panic accelerates the crash.
4. Future Trends: Short-term Bottoming, Long-term Less Madness (Objective, Not Hype)
Market opinions vary, but based on historical patterns, current negative factors, and analyst views, here are three objective judgments (not absolute, just for reference; core logic: negatives aren’t over, rebounds should be cautious):
- Short-term (1-15 days): Likely to continue testing lows, possibly breaking below $60,000. Bitcoin has already fallen below key supports of $70,000 and $65,000. Bear momentum remains, and market sentiment is extremely fearful. No clear positive news. Platforms like Polymarket estimate an 82% chance Bitcoin will fall below $65,000 this year, with about 60% probability of dropping below $55,000. However, analyst Benjamin Cowen suggests that overwhelming bearish sentiment might set the stage for a short-term rebound, but the rebound will be weak—probably a “weak bounce, strong decline”—resistance at $73,500–$74,000.
- Mid-term (1-6 months): If negatives persist, expect sideways or downward movement with weak rebounds. Continued hawkish Fed policies, ETF outflows, and tighter regulation could keep Bitcoin oscillating between $60,000 and $70,000, testing supports repeatedly. Even if it rebounds, it’s unlikely to break above previous consolidation ranges ($75,500–$76,000). A further decline is possible, and a clear upward trend is unlikely. Noted investor Michael Burry warns that ongoing declines could trigger a “death spiral,” causing a large-scale collapse of value. Its speculative nature is fully exposed, making previous rallies unlikely to recur.
- Long-term (over 1 year): Rebound possible but unlikely to reach new highs; bubbles may further deflate. Historically, Bitcoin rebounds after crashes, but this crash involves multiple negatives, and its current market cap of $1.27 trillion (peak $2.48 trillion) indicates a large bubble. Even if macro policies loosen and regulation eases, inflows may be limited. It’s unlikely to surpass the $126,000 peak, likely entering a “slow rise, slow fall” oscillation, with bubbles gradually deflating and its speculative nature reasserting itself. Uncertainty remains high—since it has no physical backing, prices depend solely on sentiment and capital, vulnerable to policy and black swan events. The “every crash is followed by a new high” pattern may be broken.
The 40+ thousand liquidations this time mostly involved people hoping to “buy low and get rich,” ending up wiped out or in debt. In China, related trading is not protected by law, and losses cannot be recovered legally. There’s a risk of platform fraud or funds being stolen. Avoid leverage and “buy the dip” traps!
Crypto is fundamentally speculative. There’s no “sure profit”—especially with leverage, which amplifies both gains and risks. During crashes, liquidation is highly likely. Don’t believe “it will bounce back after falling too much”—Bitcoin’s declines have no bottom. Buying the dip only increases losses. Many have gone bankrupt due to blind buying and leverage.
Don’t be fooled by the “get-rich-quick” myth! Some do make money with Bitcoin, but they are a tiny minority. Most suffer losses, liquidations, and debts. The so-called “get-rich-quick” stories are backed by countless tears and bloodshed.
This crash is the best warning: speculation always carries risks. Blind following will backfire. In the face of multiple negatives, any attempt to buy the dip is essentially gambling, with a high chance of losing everything.
5. Summary: No Normalcy in Crypto, Respect for Risks Is the Bottom Line
Every Bitcoin crash is a warning to speculators. Without physical backing or safety nets, its price depends entirely on sentiment and capital. The so-called “safe-haven asset” or “digital gold” is just hype. In real market turmoil, it’s fragile.
This crash wiped out over 40,000 traders’ positions, halved its market cap, and proved once again: crypto’s madness will eventually return to rationality, bubbles will burst, and those paying the price are always ordinary investors chasing “get-rich-quick” dreams, blindly following, or leveraging.
Regardless of whether Bitcoin rebounds or continues falling, remember: the myth of instant wealth in crypto has never belonged to ordinary people. The risks of a crash are something every participant must bear alone.
What do you think about this Bitcoin crash? Do you know anyone who got liquidated? Where do you think Bitcoin will likely fall? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments.
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