CryptoHODL

🥶 Mass capitulation of $BTC is imminent
Glassnode warns of the risks of mass capitulation of $BTC
The Realized Profit/Loss Ratio indicator has fallen to ~1.5 and is moving towards the critical mark of 1.
📉 Historically, breaking through this level triggers widespread capitulation: investors massively lock in losses instead of profits, the market loses liquidity, and this can trigger a serious $BTC crash.

📉 $BTC is losing ground
Galaxy's head of research stated that $BTC current weakness may not be coincidental. He estimates that the price could fall to the 200-week moving average, around $58,000, in the coming weeks or months.
🧐 Reasons:
▪️ 46% of the total $BTC supply is currently in the red
▪️ Bitcoin has failed to move in unison with gold and silver, losing its status as a reliable hedge against devaluation

🔓 $2.0 Billion Worth of Tokens To Be Unlocked in February. Details from CryptoRank:
$RIAN - $359.45M
$ZAMA - $81.16M
$ZRO - $44.57M
$ASTER - $44.49M
$BERA - $31.41M
$STABLE - $27.01M
$PUMP - $24.64M
$COCA - $21.27M
$GRASS - $19.56M
$CAPX - $17.60M

🔓 Top 7 Token unlocks of the this week from CryptoRank:

$SUI - $80.38M
$EIGEN - $12.35M
$KITEAI - $11.54M
$UDS- $11.31M
$OP - $9.81M
$TREE - $9.78M
$SIGN - $7.81M

🔓 Top 7 Token unlocks of the this week from CryptoRank:

$ONDO - $759.91M
$ASTER - $55.11M
$PUMP - $23.80M
$APT - $19.93M
$ARB - $18.72M
$STBL - $16.87M
$SEI - $11.40M

🔓 Top 7 Token unlocks of the this week from CryptoRank:

$RAIN - $302.86M
$BREV - $110.03M
$ENA - $41.88M
$STABLE - $13.56M
$LINEA - $7.44M
$MOCA - $6.62M
$MOVE - $6.21M

🔓 Top 7 Token unlocks of the this week from CryptoRank:

$SUI - $78.90M
$BEAT - $43.97M
$ENA - $20.08M
$EIGEN - $14.44M
$COCA - $12.99M
$KMNO - $11.00M
$OP - $8.85M

📉 How liquidity was collected today
The price of $BTC went up not because of demand, but because of the accumulation of shorts.
📊 Funding went into the red, OI grew, feet stood above resistance. Large players dispersed the price to take out short positions. Liquidations created the illusion of a breakdown, retail began to buy.
While everyone was chasing growth, the same large capital was selling - this can be seen in the flows to the stock exchange.
When the liquidations ended and there was no real demand, the price fell sharply.

🔓 Top 7 Token unlocks of the this week from CryptoRank:

$H - $18.71M
$XPL - $11.41M
$RIVER - $8.56M
$TAKE - $4.90M
$SAHARA - $4.88M
$ID - $4.42M
$SOSO - $3.68M

📉 $ETH can close 9 months in minus out of 12.
If December closes in the red, it will be the fourth month in a row with a loss and 9 in total this year. This already happened in 2018, and we all know how it ended globally for the asset.
Many have bought a coin and are now panicking - friends, don't worry and calmly hold your positions further. Yes, the market is falling, it is unpleasant, but it is impossible to draw any conclusions about the global structure, since we have an extremely controversial market configuration.
Altcoins fall only because of $BTC , like $ETH. There is no individuali

📊 Should we expect altcoin spot ETF listings?
Many spot ETFs are still pending. Currently, decisions are pending on 126 applications for a variety of altcoin spot ETFs. However, don't get too excited, as the launches of SOL spot ETFs have shown that demand for altcoins is weak, and large capital is only interested in BTC and ETH, which currently look weak.
Currently, there are 15 pending applications for $BTC spot ETFs, 10 for $XRP , 9 for $SOL , 7 for $ETH , 4 for $AVAX, and many other altcoins. I believe almost all of them will be approved by 2026, and while BTC and ETH are in demand, somet

🩸Statistically, 2026 could be an extremely negative year for cryptocurrencies.
If we look at history and how $BTC performs during the US midterm elections, we'll see a 59% correction in 2014, a 75% correction in 2018, and a 64% correction in 2022. History doesn't have to repeat itself, especially since everything points to cycle shifts, but it's best to keep this in mind.
If a bear market begins in 2026, we could very well fall somewhere around $30,000
🐋 $BTC inflows to Binance from whales are noticeably declining. Currently, the average annual figure is 6,500 BTC, which is extremely low. I

📉 Short-term $BTC investors are suffering losses and are preparing to capitulate.
The market's protracted phase continues, and liquidity is gradually accumulating, preparing us for a momentum move in one direction. Short-term Bitcoin holders are still losing money. The average loss for this category of players is 10%.
This has often been a harbinger of a strong move due to the large amount of stuck liquidity. All this points to market growth and the removal of short-term liquidity. A withdrawal to $100,000 will eliminate over $6 billion in liquidity in the form of stops.

🐋 Whales actively support $ETH
Over the past five years, ETH has traded very close to the average purchase price for whales holding at least 100,000 coins only four times. Two of these occurred in 2022, and the remaining instances occurred this year.
However, as soon as the price attempts to fall below this price, thereby pushing major players into the red, they actively buy back in each of these instances.
Bitmine continues to accumulate its $ETH positions. The company remains bullish on Ethereum's prospects and continues to increase its holdings. They made another purchase, acquiring 4,959

BitMine continues to increase its $ETH reserves.
Amid expectations of a key rate cut, the company decided to purchase an additional 33,504 ETH for a total of $112 million.
Currently, it holds 3,864,951 $ETH , along with 193 $BTC
The CEO of BitMine is optimistic and is betting on market growth early next year.
Overall, my position is similar. I also expect a positive start to the year, so I recommend you consider buying Ethereum ecosystem coins, although I've already mentioned them. Perhaps some haven't yet decided to add to their positions, but now is the time.

📉 Outflow of funds from spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs has resumed - SoSoValue
Crypto ETF financial flows for yesterday:
$BTC = -$77,340,000.
$ETH = -$42,370,000.
$SOL = +$11,020,000
$XRP = +$16,420,000
$LINK = +$1,860,000.
$DOGE, $LTC, $HBAR = $0.

📊 Bitwise values ​​$BTC at $1.3 millions by 2035
Bitwise's chief investment officer, Matt Hougan, presented their model for valuing $BTC. Their target is $1.3 millions in 10 years. This theory is based on the potential growth of $BTC share of gold's market capitalization from 9 to 25 percent.
This is essentially a guess—who will even remember all these conferences and big talk in 10 years? If BTC doesn't even come close to this target, the company will simply remain silent. If it does, headlines like "We warned you" will appear.
This is a viable idea for buying BTC for 10 years, but this str

📈 The market is recovering
All indications are that the market is recovering – leverage has decreased, speculative interest has declined, and some risky positions have been eliminated.
The market is improving, but now is the most important moment that will determine the subsequent trend.
The Fed has cut rates for the third time in a row. Overall, as everyone expected, we saw a key rate cut. However, as I told you, with a 25-basis cut, we expect only a slight increase, given that this was already priced into the market.
📊 There was some volatility based on expectations, with $BTC hitting the