#2026CryptoFlag It's been a long time since I sat in front of the computer and typed. As per tradition and ritual, I still want to write something.
If you can see these words at this moment, I believe you still can't leave this circle, whether it's out of genuine passion or dissatisfaction. In 2025, the most injured will be the old leeks in the crypto world—hard to say more, so let's just leave it at that.
While scrolling through my phone, I listen to Luo Zhenyu's New Year’s speech for the year 2026, a habit that’s been around for about seven or eight years. But this year feels especially strange. First, very few people are watching; second, the comments are full of sarcasm and irony. It seems everyone is not so satisfied or happy. Ordinary people's lives are getting harder, channels for voicing opinions are narrowing, and the cognitive split and ideological iteration within circles sometimes make it feel like even breathing is wrong.
Watching Mr. Luo still talking nonsense seriously, I feel myself drifting further away from this circle. Perhaps it's due to the industry I work in facing profit difficulties this year. I always feel his topics are quite illusory—AI, future healthcare, big health industry—full of happiness and positive energy, making it seem as if ordinary people can easily dive into this industry, or that AI will make medical consultations free in the future.
Ordinary people have no资格 to get sick. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter of 2025, my entire family supported over 30,000 yuan in medical GDP, and that’s based on insurance and commercial coverage. I am personally very resistant to going to the hospital. Every time I leave the inpatient department, I unconsciously marvel at the unreal world. At our age, most small business owners no longer compete over cars, houses, women, or children. It’s as if everyone suddenly awakens—quitting smoking and drinking, sleeping early, waking early, exercising diligently. Only with genuine health can more meaning be found in life.
Mr. Luo has obviously lost weight, which I very much envy. Wealthy people cherish their lives; it’s clear he’s put effort into adjusting himself. I should learn from this. In 2025, I gained 8 kilograms, with a fat head and big ears. Though I look blessed, only I know the internal emptiness.
Reflecting on 2025, my career is not doing well. Overall, it’s still in a state of contraction and regression. Although I predicted this at the beginning of the year, I didn’t expect it to be so difficult. When the takeout wave swept in, I finally closed one store in the fourth quarter, and the new model planning also stopped. As for 2026, I have no particular outlook for now. Our personnel reserve is somewhat thin; we choose to rest and recuperate, take one step at a time, focus on our own small territory. When it comes to实体投资, we still need to be clear and cautious.
Regarding investments, my wife said the fund lost money—exactly how much, I dare not ask, but I can guess. I only have the crypto track. The bull market started in November 2022, with the temporary peak on October 6, 2025. Looking at the total position since the start of the bull market, there are indeed profits, but if calculated based on the account balance on January 1, 2025, it’s definitely a loss.
The overall trend of the market in 2025 showed a跌-涨-跌 pattern. BTC was a disaster among many investment targets. ETH also couldn’t carry the crypto banner. Many new and old mainstream altcoins drifted in the fog of news and quantitative algorithms, ultimately entering winter under the control of new scythes.
The biggest lesson from this cycle is that after the rise of AI concepts, the underestimation of the capital volume that the seven giants of the US stock market would seize in the crypto market was a mistake. Wall Street and large companies only chase BTC, and their configuration mode of not炒作 mainstream altcoins is overly optimistic. Even more wrong was blindly believing politicians’ lies.
Looking back at 2025, if you miss the exit point at the summer or mid-autumn highs, it’s very hard to come out unscathed. Perhaps that’s the so-called pain point of value investing. In this increasingly bizarre and high-risk investment market, how can one grasp the big trend and avoid becoming a sacrifice on the battlefield?
Reviewing the two rounds of crypto investment history, if you want to still profit under FOMO, just one greed and you’ll likely end up亏损. Only value investing is the唯一出路—rationality. I find it hard to imagine what my outcome would be today if I hadn’t fully allocated in BTC, ETH, and ADA, or if I had gone all-in on altcoins like in previous cycles. If I hadn’t sold 30% of my holdings and BNB, I’d still be fully in the game now. What would my ending be?
Not fully退出 but not declaring victory either, but psychologically I would be extremely anxious. So, from this perspective, looking at my current account收益 and仓位分布, I can only say I was qualified in 2025 but not excellent. As I mentioned in my second live broadcast in November, if I were truly excellent, I should have decisively exited after 1011, at least keeping 50% of my空仓.
But I didn’t do that, so now I need to be responsible for my account and pay a certain interest cost for crossing the New Year. I saw some friends in the comments say I didn’t lead everyone to逃顶 and lost quite a bit. Honestly, when I saw that comment, I was a bit unhappy—after all, what I wanted to express and suggest isn’t necessarily correct. In the past few years of analysis and thoughts on trading, I often remind that these are just my personal opinions. I’m not a teacher or a大神; my opinions are for your参考 only. You need to consider your own situation carefully.
Maybe that’s a new friend—I don’t know his specific situation, and it’s his first time commenting. A few days ago, I shared this with a good friend, and she said I should feel fortunate. After all, I haven’t seen many people complain in comments, and there are fans and loyal subscribers waiting there. If you really care, keep writing, make yourself more rational, more professional, and help more people.
Haha, I felt a very strong力量—suddenly enlightened. But to be honest, I do have some long-term mainstream altcoins I’m quite optimistic about, and I’ve recommended them several times in comments and动态, including ETH, ADA, LINK, ONDO, AAVE, etc. Yesterday, I spent three hours reviewing comments, posts, and live content. If you bought these coins, even though our entry prices and allocations differ, I believe the recommended entry points, at their highest loss so far, should not exceed 50%. But if you’re currently experiencing losses, I hope you can forgive my advice. I will be more cautious in the future—no more blindly recommending coins, no more rash opinions. Please also prepare to enter or exit based on your own situation.
The friend who guided me last asked me a very practical question: Do I still believe in the 2026 crypto market? To be honest, I still do. It’s hard to sort out all the viewpoints in a short time. The future looks good, but the process will be very tough. As I wrote in my subscription update before, I won’t deceive myself because I know exactly which coins I hold, at what数字 I can profit, which funds can stay long-term, and which should be cut loss timely. So I still look forward to the first quarter of 2026. I know I can’t逆天改命 in the crypto world, but if I operate cautiously, the return on capital should be slightly higher than that of restaurant实体经营.
Sometimes, the reason I can be so calm and enlightened is because I look at my daughter’s long-term account—this is the account she will use for college in the future. I understand why I chose this配置 and can give long-term期待 and等待 to this fund.
Time is almost up. I need to publish this article before 12 o’clock. Borrowing a phrase I saw on Xiaohongshu to end my 2025总结: the road is still long, we weather the storms together, watch over each other, and encourage each other.
Your choices in previous years have led to your current predicament. Your current choices will shape your future life.
If you don’t prepare in advance, the days ahead will be very bleak. If a person’s vision is always far-reaching, whether in life or investment, they will ultimately be the winner.
In life, cherish every income. In investment, prefer long-term strategies. When quality assets fall to low levels, bet on the growth of the next few years. While you’re still worried about short-term fluctuations over a few days, others are already planning their布局 for the coming years.
Without proper思想, the results will be very different. I sincerely wish friends who follow and watch this动态 in 2026 to stay calm, face it optimistically, stay healthy, and prosper financially☕☕☕
