Crypto100w

In the past few days, "tariffs" have become the keyword in global markets:
- New developments and reversals in tariff policies: The US has introduced/implemented a new 10% global tariff (with signals that it may be raised to 15%), combined with previous judicial progress regarding the legality of tariffs, leading to a rapid increase in market expectations of trade friction and rising costs.
- Risk assets decline simultaneously: Stock markets, cryptocurrencies, and other high-volatility assets are under pressure overall. BTC prices experienced a significant drop over the weekend and Monday, briefly falling below $65,000, then further retreating to around $63,000.
"BTC breaking below 65,000 is not a major event within the crypto community, but a sudden shift in macro risk appetite."

Messari depicts 2026 as a year of transition "from casino-style speculation to systemic integration (payments, yields, asset issuance, and infrastructure)": **BTC/stablecoins become the foundational currency layer, TradFi uses compliant stablecoins and RWA/tokenization to turn on-chain into new financial pipelines; L2/L1 undergo valuation and value capture re-pricing; DeFi evolves into CLOB/active market making, modular lending, DeFi banks, and yield-bearing stablecoins; AI×DePIN moves toward billable computing power/data networks; consumer applications break into new territories with prediction markets, financialized social media, and "atypical RWA."**

In the cryptocurrency market, there is a very common yet intriguing phenomenon:
— Every time the market crashes, a large number of retail investors rush in, shouting "Good buying opportunity";
— And every time the market surges, they hesitate or even buy at the high.
This behavioral logic is not uncommon in the stock market, but it manifests even more extremely in the crypto world. The reasons are simple: crypto market volatility is more intense, information is more chaotic, leverage is easier to access, and the barrier to participation is lower.
As a result, we often see scenarios like:
* When BTC drops from 60,000 to 50,000, some buy the dip;
* When it falls to 40,000, others buy the dip again;
* When it drops to 30,000, more people "go all-in to buy the dip";
* When it hits 20,000, almost all retail investors ask, "Is this the bottom?"
But the reality is often: the true "bottom" usually appears after the majority of retail investors have been trapped, liquidated, and forced to exit.
So here’s the question:
**Why are retail investors so eager to buy the dip? Why do they keep rushing in despite knowing "not to catch falling knives"? Why is this phenomenon especially severe in the crypto world?**
To answer these questions, we need to analyze from multiple dimensions.

If we break down the market movement into “Trigger—Transmission—Amplifier,” this decline is usually not caused by a single negative factor, but rather by the stacking of multiple links:
1) Sudden shift in macro risk appetite: Cross-asset deleveraging
When U.S. stocks (especially in tech/AI sectors) and other risk assets become more volatile, funds often do two things:
Remove leverage: Sell risk assets to recover margin
Reduce volatility exposure: Prioritize trimming high-volatility positions (BTC often bears the brunt)
> The result is: Even if BTC itself doesn’t have an “independent fundamental thunder,” it will still be sold along with other risk assets.
2) Liquidity expectations tightening: Concerns over “faster contraction” lead to undervaluation
Market expectations of liquidity conditions (such as the pace of balance sheet reduction, interest rate paths, etc.) directly impact:
Risk premium (investors demand higher returns to hold high-volatility assets)
Leverage costs (rising financing costs → more fragile positions)
Institutional risk budget (lower tolerance for volatility → passive deleveraging)

Recently, the cryptocurrency market has experienced intense volatility. Bitcoin (BTC) peaked at $126,000 in October 2025 and then steadily declined, crashing to around $74,000 in early February 2026, triggering market panic. Meanwhile, the precious metals market also suffered a heavy blow: gold prices fell from a high of $5,600 per ounce to $4,400 per ounce, while silver plummeted from $121 per ounce to $71 per ounce, but then quickly rebounded, with gold rising back to $4,900 per ounce and silver to $85 per ounce. This pattern of "violent rebound after a sharp drop" has been evident in precious metals, while the Bitcoin market remains sluggish. Will the next move in the crypto space be a "desperate rebound" or a "further decline"? This article will conduct an in-depth analysis from multiple perspectives, including macroeconomics, geopolitics, technical analysis, and fundamentals, to explore potential trends.

On January 30, 2026, U.S. President Donald Trump announced the nomination of former Federal Reserve Board member Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair, to succeed Jerome Powell when his term ends in May 2026. The nomination still requires Senate confirmation.
Several media outlets reported that Warsh served as a Federal Reserve Board member from 2006 to 2011 and was responsible for communication with Wall Street during the 2008 financial crisis; he has publicly supported "lower interest rates" over the past year but also emphasized balance sheet reduction/restructuring of policy frameworks, criticizing the Fed's policy "loss of focus" in the post-crisis and post-pandemic eras.
In summary: this is a combination of "more dovish on interest rates but potentially more hawkish on liquidity"—the impact on crypto assets depends not just on "cutting or not cutting rates," but on the net effect of "rate cuts + balance sheet reduction" and the market's re-pricing of future liquidity expectations.

In the past two days, a seemingly insignificant event in the crypto world could actually change the fate of many retail traders—Binance has officially upgraded its options platform, allowing ordinary users to "write options" (Selling Options/Shorting Options).
Many people may not yet realize what this means. Previously, most exchanges' simple options products only allowed users to be "buyers." In other words, you could only spend money to buy a lottery ticket—either hitting the jackpot (making a huge profit) or losing everything (going to zero). Essentially, this is a high-risk, low-probability "gambling" activity.
Allowing "sellers" to participate means you can stand on the other side of the table and become the "lottery ticket seller," also known as the "house."
On Wall Street, institutional investors are often able to navigate bull and bear markets not by precisely predicting price movements, but by earning steady premiums through "selling volatility." This is the so-called "rent collection" model.
This in-depth analysis will break down: Why is "selling options" a necessary course for retail traders to become professional traders? How can you use this feature on Binance to build a "guaranteed profit" strategy? And under what circumstances could you lose everything because of this feature?

Recently, the US Senate's proposed crypto market structure bill (the "overall framework" for market rules) faced an "unexpected brake" as it approached key stages (Markup / discussion of amendments): Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong publicly withdrew support, and the Senate Banking Committee subsequently postponed the related agenda.
What the market cares about most is not whether it is "bearish," but whether the US regulatory clarity engine, this "bull market booster," is a short-term ceasefire and maintenance or a complete shutdown.
My conclusion is: in the short term, it is emotional cooling / increased volatility; in the medium term, it depends on whether the terms can be "amended to an industry-acceptable version"; in the long term, the direction remains "legislation providing clarity," but the process will be more tug-of-war and repetitive.

Korean regulatory stance is gradually bringing "corporate/institutional funds" back into the domestic crypto market: the core is to allow listed companies/professional investment institutions to participate under a clearer compliance framework, but with a "5% (equity capital) cap + only Top20 assets + only the five major licensed exchanges" to keep risks "within a controllable range." In the short term, it more resembles a "narrative-driven increase in risk appetite," while in the medium term, it depends on the actual implementation speed of detailed rules and whether bank accounts/compliance processes are synchronized.

As the whole world watches the capital flow of the US ETF, the East is quietly launching a trillion-level "liquidity engine." Japan, once a safe haven for cryptocurrencies, is trying to regain its position as the global Web3 center through this round of tax reform. The tax rate has dropped from 55% to 20%, which is not just a change in numbers but a signal that the Asian capital gate is opening.

Update Date: 2026-01-08
Disclaimer: This article is for research/educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency assets are highly volatile; please act according to your own risk tolerance.
0) What happened: How significant are the "reversals" over the past two days?
0.1 Key Data (US Spot BTC ETF)
Below are the net outflows for the last two trading days (unit: US$m; data source: Farside Investors):
2026-01-06: Total net outflow -243.2, IBIT +228.7 (contrarian net inflow)
FBTC -312.2 (main drag)
GBTC -83.1
Others: ARKB -29.5, HODL -14.4, BTC (Grayscale Mini) -32.7, etc.
2026-01-07: Total net outflow -486.1, IBIT -130.0 (shifted from "contrarian inflow" to "also starting to flow out")
FBTC -247.6
BITB -39.0, ARKB -42.3, HODL -11.6, GBTC -15.6, etc.
Observation point: 01-06 still resembles a "structural rotation (A outflow, B inflow)", while 01-07 looks more like a "broad-spectrum retreat (multiple products flowing out simultaneously)."

Old-school Meme Coins (DOGE / PEPE / SHIB) and Altcoins "Collective Rebound": What Has Been Happening These Days?
Applicable Time Window: 2025-12-31 ～ 2026-01-04 (Typical market structure during the days after New Year)
Disclaimer: The following content is for research/educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice or profit guarantee; cryptocurrency assets are highly volatile, please trade with the risk and position size you can afford.
1. Phenomenon Review: Why are "Old Meme" Coins the first to move?
Common tactics during these New Year days are:
BTC stabilizes/rebounds → Risk appetite warms → High Beta sectors lead the rally
Meme coins are inherently high Beta, with large price elasticity. As long as capital flows back even slightly, they tend to experience a "magnified rebound."
The "position squeeze" caused by previous declines/downsides has been released.
Once a rebound occurs, short-covering can amplify the gains (especially in coins with high contract ratios).
Holiday liquidity tends to be thin.
Thin liquidity means:
- During declines, it’s easier to be pushed out in a waterfall drop
- During rebounds, it’s easier for a few K-lines to break through key resistance levels
This results in a movement that appears to be "suddenly erratic."

BTC Yearly Trend Turns Bearish + $19B Liquidation: How the “Macro Thunder” of 2025 Crashed the Crypto Market (In-Depth Explanation)
October Hits Record High → Tariff/Export Control News → Chain Liquidations (> $19 billion) → Yearly Trend Turns Bearish (First time since 2022).
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and risk education purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
5-Sentence Summary
In 2025, Bitcoin’s yearly trend turned bearish, widely interpreted as “BTC behaving more like a macro risk asset” rather than an independent market.
BTC hit a record high of over $126,000 in October but subsequently retraced significantly.
Around October 10–11, the market triggered a “liquidation waterfall” under low liquidity, with total liquidations exceeding $19 billion, setting a new record.
One direct trigger was macro policy shocks such as tariffs and export controls, causing market sentiment to switch from “optimistic” to “panicked” within hours.
This is not a “project explosion,” but a structural chain reaction caused by leverage + liquidity + exchange risk control rules under pressure.

2025 Major Events in the Crypto World Year in Review
Written on 2026-01-01: 2025 was the year of “Comprehensive Financialization of Crypto Assets”—regulation began to be implemented into law, ETFs moved towards mass adoption, and on-chain finance (RWA/DeFi) increasingly resembled the “new trading layer” of traditional markets. At the same time, security incidents and macro shocks pushed “risk management” to the forefront.
A summary table (9 items)
Date (2025) Event Key Point in One Sentence
February 21 Bybit suffers approximately $1.5 billion theft State-level hackers turn “exchange security” into a geopolitical issue
May 7 Ethereum Pectra upgrade goes live Ethereum continues to bet on the “more user-friendly + more scalable” approach
June 17 – July 18 U.S. “GENIUS Act” stablecoin legislation passed and signed Stablecoins gain a systemic federal framework in the U.S. for the first time
September 18 (Key milestone) SEC introduces new spot crypto ETF listing rules “One-by-one approval” becomes “batch listing according to rules”
October 6 Bitcoin hits new high (historic high > $125,000 range) Institutional and policy expectations drive the “top-out moment”
October 10–11 Largest liquidation cascade in history (>190

End of Year: Why Is BTC More Prone to "Whipsaws"? A Chart Explains the Three Forces (And How You Should Respond)
Every year-end, you’ll more frequently see these scenes:
No big news, but BTC can suddenly spike or drop by 1%–3%
Repeated "false breakouts/false breakdowns" near key round numbers
More "instant surges and drops" during the night or weekends
A quick spike hits stop-losses, then the price returns as if nothing happened
This isn’t mysticism; it’s more about the market structure becoming more “fragile” at year-end. You can think of BTC at year-end as: narrower roads, fewer cars, but sharper brakes.
Below, using “one chart + three forces” to explain: why is year-end more prone to whipsaws, and how can ordinary investors reduce risk without predicting the market direction.
One chart: The three forces behind year-end volatility (core logic)
Year-end BTC more whipsaw
▲
│
┌────────────┼────────────┐
│ │ │
Liquidity thins Derivatives more sensitive Rebalancing/Emotion amplification
(Road narrows)

Binance BTC/USD1 Flash Crash to $24,000 and Instant Recovery: What Exactly Happened?
Last night/today, you might have seen a screenshot of “BTC dropping to 24,000”: a needle directly stabbing the floor, then bouncing back to over 80,000 in the next second.
Let's put the conclusion upfront: this is not a total market crash of Bitcoin, but rather an extreme “flash wick” occurrence on a relatively obscure trading pair on Binance — BTC/USD1. It resembles a liquidity incident — but for some traders, it could still be a “real loss” incident.
In this episode, we’ll explain thoroughly: why did such an outrageous price of 24,000 appear? Why did it only happen to BTC/USD1? Who might be hurt? How can ordinary people protect themselves?

JPMorgan Institutional Trading of Encryption Assets: This is not a "transformation", but a signal that Wall Street is entering the second half.
Key signal: JPMorgan has been reported to be evaluating the provision of encryption asset trading services for institutional clients (possibly covering spot and derivatives), still in the early research phase, ultimately depending on client demand and compliance implementation.
Many people's first reaction to this news is: "Hasn't Dimon always criticized Bitcoin? Why is he suddenly getting involved?"
But if you put it into the framework of "How Wall Street Makes Money," you'll find that this is more like a business inevitability rather than an attitude reversal.
I will explain this matter thoroughly using the five segments: "What happened → Why now → What can be done → What it means for the market → What signals you should pay attention to."