MikeLei

BTC, a new week, focusing on the monthly timeframe framework. Currently, the price is trading within the pmVAH - pmVWAP range, with the upper and lower boundaries being our key levels for trading.
Over the weekend, the decline left a gap on CME, and the 30-minute level also shows an unfilled nPOC, which leans more towards a continuation of the decline after filling the gap.
The quick drop in the early session reached the 8-week CVAH, where the price is building a consolidation. We can see this as a parallel bottom; if the price consolidates below this level, forming a high point of a consolida

All the key points about the trend line revolve around 【consensus】— how many people believe in it, and whether they go long or short near the line. The fact that so many people are discussing this line indicates 【consensus】, which means it will have an effect. The effects include: support, resistance, genuine breakouts, and false breakouts.
It seems that recently there has been quite a bit of discussion in the community about this trend line. I discussed it with AI and summarized a few opinions:
Two points connected are just “subjective guesses”: On the chart, you can randomly find two high po

In the past four days, there have been continuous breakthroughs above previous highs, but then it fell back. The final daily line closed in a consolidation zone.
The consolidation over the past three days was relatively mild, with little fluctuation. But today, if the daily line finally closes back in the same area as the previous three days, these bullish traders who are chasing from above might put significant pressure on the market, possibly no longer allowing it to continue consolidating like this. $BTC

Update
Figure 1: 4H chart, BTC is still oscillating around the central zone, attempting to break out of the zone. Watch whether the MACD during the breakout can make a new high and whether the area is larger than before. Otherwise, treat it as consolidation divergence and consider short positions.
Figure 2: 1H chart, after breaking out of segment b, BTC has left the original central zone, and b did not diverge from a, and a 3-buy pattern has formed. This means another new central zone will inevitably appear later. Currently, the action to take is to wait for the new central zone to form, t