Tiezhu

1. Lost some of my data sources, and had Agent help me organize the data. Organized by weekly data, I still think it has great value. After running smoothly, I will continue to share with everyone.
2. From the data, there are several key features:
1) Tech stocks underperform, small-cap stocks are relatively resilient; profit growth has slowed down; but long-term EPS remains optimistic, and overall valuations have slightly compressed.
2) Whether looking at VIX, CNN fear and greed index, or retail investor sentiment and professional investor exposure from AAII, risk appetite has clearly tightene

Claude Opus4.6 is incredibly powerful, truly outstanding.
The chart below shows the metrics analysis over the past few months that I provided via link, which it automatically analyzed for me, and it even provided its own key insights.

Just reviewed the ETFs with over 20% YTD performance this year, which are quite informative and basically show what the market is buying.
1. Alternative Energy
NLR VanEck Uranium and Nuclear ETF - Nuclear Energy
FAN First Trust Global Wind Energy ETF - Wind Power
2. Energy Sector
Most perform well, but two stand out significantly
PXJ Invesco Oil & Gas Services ETF - Oil & Gas Services
URA Global X Uranium ETF - Uranium
3. Industrial Infrastructure
Mostly positive returns, but one is far ahead
SEA US Global Sea to Sky Cargo ETF - Global Sea and Air Cargo. The largest holding here is COSCO

The chart is from Bloomberg. In simple terms, market participants are offering higher premiums for downside protection. The peak in July 2024 corresponds to the closing of yen arbitrage trades.

Semiconductors are the coolest kids on the block. Koreans are aggressively pushing the market.
By the time all of SK Hynix and Samsung's production capacities are built, it will still be possible to consider retreating. But that will be after 1.5 years.
Current bottlenecks: TSMC's CoWoS advanced packaging capacity, and the capacities of several memory suppliers.
Especially after the advent of HBM4, the Base Die will all rely on TSMC.

This article from Bloomberg has sparked widespread discussion in the English-speaking community, especially regarding where the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department's agreement will ultimately land. What exactly is the market worried about? Here are my thoughts:
1. The core idea of the article is that Waller hopes to reform the relationship between the two agencies through a new version of the Fed-Treasury agreement, essentially reshaping the 1951 agreement. The 1951 agreement's core is that it established the Fed's independence by preventing it from restricting yields to lower governme

A few days ago, it was indicated that the risk clearance has not ended. The following four charts can explain this. 1. USD/JPY swap points have skyrocketed since December 27. 2. Capital has flooded into the bond market. 3. The VIX structure is also pricing forward uncertainty.

The following two charts basically reflect why the sharp decline in gold and silver occurred. Additionally, although gold and silver plunged, the CME's new margin requirements will still be adjusted after February 2nd. Especially since the margin requirements are based on the nominal value. In other words, this crash will cause the actual margin ratio to far exceed the current level. Put simply, it’s roughly equivalent to saying: those without sufficient capital should not play in the commodity markets. The consensus of crowded trades combined with changes in leverage margin requirements means

Last week ETF data: Gold net inflow of $174 million, oil net inflow of $55 million, silver net inflow of $31 million, Bitcoin short ETF net inflow of $1.8 million, Bitcoin ETF net outflow of $420 million.

ARK can be considered the fund with the highest risk appetite. It can be compared with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 to observe how the market's funds are currently viewing the situation.

VIX has once again broken above 20. The market has clearly entered a short-term risk-averse mode rather than a long-term uncertain rally.
It will come back.

Google will be very impressive; the earnings report will be announced in early February.
Previously, Gemini2.5 was profitable (excluding basic model development), so 3 should also be positive. These are under the assumption of not considering the partnership with Apple.

An article published today by CBOE. About volatility. Here's a summary:
1. From a cross-asset perspective, most are at lows, with crude oil volatility rising significantly and being extremely bullish.
2. The VIX index measuring stocks, despite its low reading, has undergone structural changes, with more puts being bought, and defensive positions still trending upward. The gap between index volatility and individual stock volatility exceeds the 90% percentile. In other words, as earnings season approaches, the market remains more focused on fundamentals rather than macro factors.
3. Despite Tru

Is this the year of a big crypto IPO boom?