Tonight non-farm payrolls will be released, and the crypto market may face a wave of intense volatility.

The background is as follows——After the U.S. government shutdown lasted 43 days, this first set of real employment data is particularly critical. It directly reflects the economic situation and is an important reference for Federal Reserve policies.

The latest warning from the Fed is clear: the unemployment rate could rise to 4.5%, job growth may stagnate, and it will become harder for young people to find jobs. Structural labor shortages combined with tighter immigration policies mean that the employment market will face significant pressure in the short term.

For the crypto market, this points to a core issue——interest rate cuts.

If the data shows weak performance, the market will reinforce bets on easing policies. Dollar liquidity will tilt towards crypto assets, and Bitcoin is very likely to repeat its previous single-day surge of 8%. But if the data performs strongly, the expectation of rate cuts will be disappointed, and a stronger dollar could trigger a correction, even risking liquidation. Historically, scenarios where 400,000 traders were liquidated have occurred.

The market is now standing at a crossroads. On one side is Powell’s warning about employment risks, and on the other side is capital’s desire for liquidity. Tonight’s data will either become the fuse for跨年行情 or pour a cold water on overheated sentiment.

Mainstream cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum are all waiting for this moment. Do you think the data will be strong or weak? The market will soon give an answer.