The subsequent effects of the government shutdown are still unfolding, and the November non-farm payroll report is finally about to be released. This time, the data is a bit special — it includes employment information for October. Although not entirely complete, the market has been eagerly awaiting it.

Last week, the Federal Reserve took significant action: cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in one go, and simultaneously removing the statement about a "relatively low" unemployment rate. Powell was even more straightforward in the press conference, stating that there are significant downside risks to the labor market. These signals stacked together, no wonder the market is pondering how much longer U.S. employment can hold up.

But there is a twist. Powell then said that the policy interest rate is getting closer to the neutral level, and the kind of "risk management" rate cuts may be coming to an end—unless there are further surprises. The implication is clear: limited room for rate cuts, and the next move depends on the data.