Tonight, the November unemployment rate and non-farm payroll data will be released soon. Given the flaws in the October base and the significant sample fluctuations in November, the market is actually expecting a "just right" result: the unemployment rate slightly higher than the expected 4.4%, and new jobs less than the expected 50,000. Such moderate soft data best balances all parties.

The reality is, if the data exceeds expectations, it will weaken the 2026 rate cut expectations, markets will cheer but assets will face pressure; if the data weakens significantly, it may trigger recession fears, falling into another extreme. The Federal Reserve has been swinging back and forth in this dilemma throughout 2025, with decision-making space severely compressed.