Tonight's release of the November unemployment rate and non-farm payroll data has attracted much attention. Due to missing previous values and the large variance in the November data collection, the market finds it quite challenging to make precise predictions.

From a game theory perspective, a 4.4% unemployment rate slightly above expectations, combined with non-farm payrolls slightly below expectations (around 50,000), represents perhaps the most ideal scenario of mild softness. Why? Because overly strong data would dampen the expectations of rate cuts in 2026, directly impacting the rebound space of risk assets; but if the data is too poor, it could trigger recession fears, which would increase market volatility.

It's also quite ironic—this entire year has been tough for the Federal Reserve. Policy space has been tightly constrained, swinging between inflation pressures and economic slowdown risks, making every move heavily scrutinized. Want to cut rates but fear inflation rebound; want to hold steady but worry about economic stalling. This dilemma makes each step the central bank takes particularly cautious.