Tonight's non-farm data is relatively weak, with short-term risks favoring bearish assets, while US Treasuries are preferred, and rate cut expectations have become uncertain.

After the non-farm report, the market has raised this year's rate cut expectation from about 35 basis points to approximately 45 basis points, but still below the roughly 55 basis points from a week ago; moreover, the mainstream market still expects the March meeting to hold steady, with interest rates maintained at 3.50%-3.75%. This is because employment is weakening, but oil prices and geopolitical conflicts are increasing inflation risks.
In February, US non-farm employment decreased by 92,000, significantly weaker than the market's original expectation of a 59,000 increase; the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. However, at the same time, hourly wages still increased by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.8% year-on-year, and employment data for the previous two months was collectively revised downward by 69,000.
This indicates that the labor market is indeed weakening.
Weak non-farm data will make the market worry about a slowdown in the US economy, which is bearish for US stocks. After the data, S&P 500 futures once fell about 0.84%, and Nasdaq futures dropped about 1.02%.
However, it is bullish for US Treasuries because economic concerns are intensifying, and funds will first go to buy bonds.
Looking solely at non-farm data, the dollar should weaken; in fact, after the data, the dollar also reduced its gains and turned short-term soft. But in recent days, the market has been dominated by Middle East conflicts and soaring oil prices, with safe-haven demand and inflation worries supporting the dollar, so the dollar has not experienced a smooth decline.
In simple terms, it's bad news for economic growth and a small positive for rate cut expectations, but inflation and war factors are causing disruptions.
Therefore, the market is currently not one-sided, and Bitcoin and Ethereum will continue to fluctuate and be pulled around.