#比特币站上7.5万美元

1. BTC Stabilizes at $75,000 - A Signal to Push toward $80,000?

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin's daily chart has now recorded a rare 8-day consecutive rise with moderate volume expansion. The price not only broke above $75,000 with strength but also touched the $76,000 level momentarily. This price action is highly significant - it has effectively broken through the strong resistance zone of $70,000-$73,000, which had previously capped multiple rallies.

Currently, the daily MACD is showing a bullish crossover with expanding positive histogram bars, indicating that bullish momentum has not yet peaked; the RSI indicator is positioned at 65-70, which is in a strong zone but has not entered overbought territory (above 80), meaning there is still safe room for further upside. From a Fibonacci retracement perspective, once $75,000 (the 0.236 retracement level) is held, technical traders will have their next target locked at the $85,000-$93,000 range. The only short-term concern is profit-taking pressure around $76,000, which has acted as a multiple resistance point in 2026, but the overall trend has already shifted to a bullish attack pattern.

2. FOMC Meeting Approaching - Will the Market Reverse or Accelerate?

This is the biggest uncertainty factor at present and represents the main variable facing the short-term technical picture. Although the market widely expects the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on March 19 to remain unchanged (with extremely high probability), the risk lies in the updated "dot plot" and economic projections summary.

From a technical analysis angle, before major macro events, markets typically experience either "intensified volatility" or "liquidity contraction." If the dot plot shows further reduction in rate-cut expectations (hawkish stance), risk assets may come under pressure, causing the coin price to retest support. However, on-chain data shows that enterprise-level buying (such as Strategy's continued accumulation) and continuous net inflows of spot ETFs provide strong "technical support" for the market. Therefore, regardless of the meeting outcome, as long as the price does not break below $74,000 (a strong support level formed by MA7 and the breakout platform), the current uptrend channel will not be compromised, and a temporary dip could actually attract more buying pressure.

3. Trading Logic: Chase Highs or Take Profits?

Based on the aforementioned "bullish but facing macro variables" technical backdrop, the optimal strategy should be "buy on pullbacks rather than chase highs or blindly exit."

1. Long Logic: The daily MA7 (approximately $74,000) has now formed strong support, and the 4-hour Bollinger Band middle band is also rising. For those without positions, this represents a "right-side trading" entry point. If the price stabilizes around the $74,000-$74,500 zone, it's an opportunity for a light long position with stops below $73,500, targeting a continuation toward $76,500-$77,000.
2. Wait-and-See Logic: Since the FOMC is the biggest short-term variable, chasing highs near $76,000 has poor risk/reward. Once the rally encounters resistance (such as stagnation candles around $76,000), a pullback for consolidation is likely in the short term.
3. Warning Signals: Despite the price surge, market sentiment remains in "extreme fear" (reading 23). This divergence between price/volume and sentiment indicates many investors have missed the move. Only when sentiment turns euphoric and RSI breaks above 80 should we be alert to a potential local top.

Summary: BTC has achieved a technical breakout, but the $76,000 level combined with the FOMC meeting may intensify volatility in the short term. Rather than speculating whether $80,000 can be reached in one move, it's better to watch $74,000 as the key short-term support/resistance level - maintain a bullish stance above it, and switch to defensive posture if broken. ETH has shown stronger momentum but similarly requires monitoring of resistance confirmation around $2,400.