International spot gold annual gains wiped out, future trend depends on extent of damage to Iran's energy infrastructure

International spot gold extended last week's decline at the beginning of this week, with intraday losses exceeding 4%. Today's decline has completely erased annual gains. Precious metals analyst Bernard Dahdah believes the current trend hinges on the direction of Middle East conflict and whether the Strait of Hormuz can be reopened. If Iran's energy facilities suffer further damage and conflict becomes prolonged, energy prices would be highly sticky, potentially forcing the Federal Reserve to shift toward rate hikes. Under this extreme scenario, gold prices could be dragged down to the $4,000 level.

In contrast to market pessimism, Saxo Bank analysts remain cautiously optimistic about gold's medium-term trend. The bank points out that the current shock exhibits clear stagflation characteristics: high inflation alongside sluggish economic growth, leaving global central banks in a dilemma. In this environment, gold's core position as a hedge against "currency depreciation" and US dollar credit risk remains solid, supported by the long-term "de-dollarization" process and the trend of central bank reserve diversification.#Gate13周年全球庆典 #黄金创43年来最大单周跌幅 #特朗普向伊朗发出48小时最后通牒 #中东局势引发全球市场暴跌