OP 繼續反映加密貨幣市場整體走弱的趨勢，成為市值前 100 大幣種中跌幅最深的三大幣之一。截稿時，OP 價格已下跌 16%，自 11/20 以來累計跌幅達 27%，對投資者造成顯著壓力。
空頭對 OP 的壓力是否會持續主導？
圖表清楚顯示空頭掌握主導權，因為 Optimism (OP) 跌至新低，並跌破 0.30 美元的重要支撐。這波跌勢主要來自資金流向 Bitcoin (BTC)，當 BTC 跌破 85,000 美元時，交易者紛紛搶購低價籌碼。
此外，市場疲弱下，隱私幣 (privacy coins) 的爆發也分流了資金，導致 OP 價格在過去一週持續下行。空頭明顯佔據優勢，這從 Bull Bear Power (BBP) 指標日益放大的柱狀圖，以及布林通道（Bollinger Band）擴大顯示波動加劇可見一斑。
這波下跌發生在盤整期之後，盤整期間特徵為高點與低點持續下移。不過，在 4 小時線上出現了一個帶有多頭 Doji 的底部區域，暗示多頭有可能發動反擊——這通常出現在價格觸及新低後。
Ngu來源：TradingView
若 altcoin 隨 BTC 續弱，OP 可能還將承受更多壓力，除非多頭能及時奪回主導權。儘管空頭仍占上風，但當 OP 跌破 0.30 美元時，多頭的反應顯示市場仍抱有一線希望。這一波下跌不僅受到技術面和資金流動的影響，也清楚反映出鏈上數據正走向同一方向。
交易、流動性與 TVL 下滑
過去每月交易數量曾高達 5,740 萬筆，但最新預測顯示月底數據將明顯下降。以目前進度推算，總交易量預計僅達 5,560 萬筆，現已完成的則僅為 3,930 萬筆。
同期間，總鎖倉價值 (TVL) 僅 24 小時內就下跌 4%，降至 5.014 億美元。鏈上 stablecoin 市值過去一週也下滑 2.76%，反映資金持續外流。這些訊號彼此共振，進一步加大 OP 價格每日穩定下跌的壓力。
Ngu來源：Dune
結論
Optimism (OP) 於過去一週大幅下跌，雖然多頭有回歸跡象，但力量仍有限。若要真正反轉，OP 必須突破 0.31 美元，並進一步挑戰 0.40 美元。
關鍵在於觀察是否出現連續創高的高點與低點——這是市場結構反轉的明確訊號。若未見此現象，空頭將維持優勢，後續下跌難以避免。
SN_Nour
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