美聯儲主席熱門人選哈塞特引發市場分化:加密市場看漲,債券投資者警告風險

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凱文·哈塞特(Kevin Hassett)成為2026年接替傑羅姆·鮑威爾的熱門候選人,正讓華爾街與加密貨幣市場出現明顯分化。據報導,債券投資者已私下向美國財政部表達擔憂,認為哈塞特若出任聯準會主席,可能推動快速且政治影響濃厚的降息,進而威脅市場穩定。

根據《金融時報》消息,華爾街銀行、資產管理機構及財政部借款諮詢委員會在11月會議中警告稱,哈塞特可能在通膨仍高於2%目標的情況下依舊選擇降息。他們指出,哈塞特在簡報會中強調政治議題,使其是否能保持央行獨立性成為焦點。預測市場數據顯示,哈塞特的勝算高達約75%,遠高於沃勒與沃什等競爭者。

加密貨幣市場則做出截然不同的判斷。交易員普遍將哈塞特視為「鴿派利好」,認為他若上任,聯準會可能迅速寬鬆,帶來更多流動性並壓低美元。根據歷史經驗,此類環境通常支撐比特幣、以太坊等加密資產上漲。哈塞特此前曾擔任美國合規加密貨幣交易所顧問,並持有超過百萬美元的 COIN 股票,也進一步強化了他被視為「加密友好」的預期。

Bitwise 策略師 Juan Leon 表示,若哈塞特掌舵,聯準會將更傾向於支持創新、降低利率,可能推動數位資產獲得更寬鬆的政策環境。

政治動態進一步加劇市場緊張情緒。川普總統近期多次暗示已決定繼任人選,並可能讓史蒂文·姆努欽接掌關鍵經濟顧問角色。債券投資者擔心,在財政赤字高企、通膨尚未完全降溫的情況下倉促降息,可能削弱聯準會信譽,引發債市波動。

鮑威爾任期將在2026年5月結束,最終提名預計於明年初公布。隨著哈塞特聲勢走強,市場分化將持續,債市尋求避險,而加密市場則押注潛在的政策寬鬆與資本流入。

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