根據鏈上追蹤,本週與一名被指控涉及加密貨幣史上最大盜竊案之一的男子相關聯的比特幣錢包群組,將新幣轉移至交易所,引起市場觀察者的警覺。Arkham Intelligence 分析師 Emmett Gallic 在 X 上指出,與美國司法部指控的 Mt. Gox 被駭事件相關聯的實體,在過去七天內向“未知交易所”存入約 1,300 BTC (約 $114 百萬)。
鏈上追蹤者表示,這些相同的錢包群組在目前水平下仍持有約 4,100 BTC (約 $360 百萬),在之前出售了約 2,300 BTC 後,這種模式看起來像是有計劃的、逐批清算,而非一次性恐慌性拋售。這些轉帳最早由 Gallic 的貼文揭示,並被監控 Arkham 信號和公開錢包啟發式的加密新聞媒體所關注。
這一動作引起關注,源於 Bilyuchenko 在 2011–2014 年期間的盜竊案中扮演的角色,該案曾摧毀了現已倒閉的交易所 Mt. Gox。2023 年 6 月,司法部公布對 Bilyuchenko 及其他人涉嫌串謀洗錢約 647,000 BTC 的指控,這一指控使得與他相關聯的錢包動向自此受到嚴密監控。
交易者關注供應
儘管轉帳規模龐大,市場在週三仍顯得相對平靜,比特幣價格在高 8 萬美元以上,日內波動有限,顯示機構和散戶交易者並未對最新的資金外流感到恐慌。交易者和分析師警告,雖然交易所流入有時預示賣壓,但少數轉帳,即使規模較大,也不一定立即引發市場全面下跌。
然而,歷史經驗顯示,這些錢包動向可能具有重要意義。今年早些時候,來自 Mt. Gox 相關地址的大規模轉帳在比特幣價值數十億美元的交易中引發情緒波動,觸及已知托管錢包,促使短期波動,因交易者重新評估可用供應。鏈上分析師表示,當前的模式——反覆存入交易所並伴隨逐步出售的歷史——正是可能使波動持續升高的活動,直到資金流枯竭或被買家吸收。
目前,這場故事仍然是部分法證謎題、部分市場故事:鏈上分析師將持續監控交易所的存入和提取模式,檢察官則以 2023 年的指控作為長期案件的突破點,而交易者則在分析這些進入交易所的幣是否代表獲利出場,或是用來洗錢和分散長期持有的盜竊資產。以比特幣目前的交易狀況,即使是相對較小的淨賣出變動,也可能在已經微妙平衡的市場中引發漣漪效應,這也是為何每一次與 Mt. Gox 時代指控相關的大規模轉帳都會立即受到關注。
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