太過平靜?比特幣波動率創歷史新低 - U.Today

BTC0.13%

Fidelity Digital Assets 已指出,比特幣的波動率已降至有史以來的最低水平

「實現波動率」衡量資產在特定期間內的價格波動程度 (在此情況下為一年)。42%的得分對比特幣來說非常低,因為比特幣在早期歷史中,年波動率曾超過100%甚至200%。

簡單來說,比特幣目前正處於「無聊」狀態。這種「非典型」的平靜表明比特幣正失去其「賭場」地位。它的交易範圍比平常更緊湊,沒有以往周期中那種20-30%的劇烈日內波動。

然而,值得注意的是,波動率在金融市場中往往具有循環性。它會從高波動的時期轉變為低穩定的時期。下降到42%表明極端壓縮,這就像彈簧被緊緊繃緊一樣。

創新高的可能性?

Fidelity Digital Assets 已識別出一個罕見且具有歷史看漲意義的信號:比特幣變得異常穩定

它展示了一個技術現象,即全時最低 (ATL) 波動率 (紅色柱子) 作為全時高 (ATH) 價格 (綠色柱子) 的前兆。

例如,2016年的低波動率預示著2017年的牛市,該牛市推升比特幣至20,000美元。

圖表顯示,現在正出現一組新的紅色柱子。Fidelity 的觀點是,這段當前的穩定期是積累的跡象,為向新高的移動積蓄能量。

比特幣目前的交易價格為$90,789,正努力從近期的下跌中恢復。該加密貨幣最近未能突破$95,000的水平

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免責聲明:本頁面資訊可能來自第三方,不代表 Gate 的觀點或意見。頁面顯示的內容僅供參考,不構成任何財務、投資或法律建議。Gate 對資訊的準確性、完整性不作保證,對因使用本資訊而產生的任何損失不承擔責任。虛擬資產投資屬高風險行為,價格波動劇烈,您可能損失全部投資本金。請充分了解相關風險,並根據自身財務狀況和風險承受能力謹慎決策。具體內容詳見聲明

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