美國比特幣ETF連續三日資金流出,風險偏好降溫壓制BTC反彈

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隨著新年初期的樂觀情緒逐步退潮,美國現貨比特幣ETF出現明顯的去風險信號。數據顯示,美國比特幣ETF已連續第三個交易日錄得資金淨流出,反映機構投資者正在重新評估風險敞口,加密市場短期情緒明顯降溫。

根據Farside數據,周四美國現貨比特幣ETF單日淨流出約2.055億美元,過去三天累計流出規模已擴大至9.348億美元。今年以來,僅有兩個交易日錄得淨流入。儘管如此,從7日維度來看,ETF整體資金仍維持約2.407億美元的淨流入,說明中期需求尚未完全逆轉。

ETF資金流向通常被視為滯後指標,但在當前階段,它對市場情緒的指示意義正在增強。比特幣年初以來的漲幅已明顯收斂,從前一日的8%回落至約4%。數據顯示,比特幣在過去24小時內維持在91,100美元附近震盪,此前一度跌破90,000美元關口,反彈動能受限。

鏈上期權平台Derive研究主管Sean Dawson指出,ETF資金外流更像是策略性倉位調整,而非需求突然消失。他認為,年初資本重新配置、比特幣多次受阻於92,000美元關鍵阻力位,以及宏觀不確定性上升,都是資金短期撤出的重要背景。

從鏈上結構看,供給壓力同樣限制了比特幣的進一步上行。Glassnode分析顯示,比特幣此前衝高至94,000美元以上,進入主要買家的密集成本區間,約集中在92,100美元至117,400美元之間。隨著這些投資者獲得“解套”機會,市場面臨持續的盈虧平衡拋壓,短期內需要時間消化新增供應。

期權市場也釋放出趨於謹慎的信號。短期看漲期權偏斜度重新轉負,表明交易員對“1月初行情延續”的預期正在降溫。市場更傾向於認為,比特幣將在高位區間震盪整理。

從ETF賽道角度看,資金流出並不等同於趨勢反轉,但它清晰表明機構風險偏好正在降溫。比特幣若想重啟上行,需要時間消化ETF與鏈上雙重壓力,同時重新站穩關鍵成本區間,才能為下一階段行情積蓄動能。

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