圍繞瑞波幣(XRP)的中期走勢,市場再次出現偏多信號。加密貨幣分析師 Bird 指出,比特幣市場份額(BTC Dominance)的結構性變化,正在重現過去多次推動 XRP 大幅上漲的歷史模式,XRP 可能正處於新一輪強勢行情的前夜。
Bird 回顧稱,在 2018 年、2021 年以及 2024 年,XRP 的三次重要上漲行情均出現在比特幣市場份額明顯走弱之後。其中,2018 年的行情直接推動 XRP 創下歷史新高;而在 2021 年,比特幣市場份額自高位回落後,XRP 同樣走出拋物線式上漲。
進入 2024 年,比特幣市場份額曾短暫跌破長期趨勢線,XRP 隨即快速拉升,但由於比特幣份額隨後反彈,該輪上漲持續時間較短。不過,即便是這次“未確認”的回落,也足以推動 XRP 刷新階段性高點。
從更長周期來看,2023 年至 2025 年間,比特幣市場份額持續上行,並在近期跌破上升趨勢線後出現回抽。Bird 認為,當前所處的位置,與歷史上 XRP 啟動主升浪前的區域高度重合,且本輪結構強度明顯高於以往。
他進一步指出,若比特幣市場份額跌破趨勢並確認下行,目標區間可能下探至 40%–44%。一旦這一情景兌現,XRP 不僅有望走強,還可能進入真正的價格發現階段,價格存在突破兩位數的潛在空間。
從盤面來看,XRP 當前價格主要運行在 2.12 美元至 2.14 美元區間,較 2025 年 12 月約 3.20 美元的高點明顯回落,但仍穩守關鍵支撐帶。技術指標顯示市場處於盤整階段,14 周期 RSI 約為 44–45,動能中性;MACD 位於負值區域但柱狀圖趨平,顯示下行壓力正在減弱。
在鏈上層面,Cryptoquant 數據顯示,自 12 月中旬以來,巨鯨流入 Gate 等主要流動性渠道的 XRP 明顯下降。當前巨鯨約占 XRP 總流入的 60.3%,散戶占比為 39.7%。大戶活躍度回落的同時,未出現明顯的散戶接盤,意味著短期抛壓正在自然釋放。
綜合來看,XRP 在經歷快速上漲後的回調階段,正在進入重新積累區間。市場方向仍需等待比特幣市場份額的進一步確認,但歷史信號顯示,XRP 或正站在關鍵拐點附近。
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