1月29日消息，美国劳动力市场正释放出明显的降温信号。亚马逊、Pinterest、UPS、耐克等多家大型企业相继宣布裁员计划，仅亚马逊就在2026年1月裁减约1.6万个岗位。数据显示，过去一年美国雇主已削减约120万个职位，裁员规模创下疫情以来新高，经济衰退预期随之快速升温。
根据Global Markets Investor预测，2025年美国裁员人数同比暴增58%，为2008年金融危机以来最严峻的年度之一。失业者平均求职周期延长至约11周，为2021年以来最长。同时，找到新工作的概率降至43.1%，进一步削弱市场信心。Creative Planning策略师Charlie Bilello指出，近三个月美国月均减少2.2万个岗位，而历史上类似情况几乎都伴随衰退出现。Swissblock首席宏观经济学家Henrik Zeberg也警告，美国经济正加速滑向下行通道。
宏观压力已开始影响资产配置。资金更倾向于流入贵金属等传统避险标的，而比特币與其他數字資產則承壓震盪。疲軟的就業環境意味着收入和消費增速放緩，這通常會壓制高波動性資產的需求，使加密市場短期難以出現持續反彈。
不過，也有观点認為，若經濟持續走弱，貨幣寬鬆預期將逐步升溫，利率下調與流動性釋放可能在中長期為加密貨幣創造新的支撐。一旦風險偏好回暖，比特幣或再次成為資金重返風險市場的重要選擇。
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