加密貨幣市場情緒持續走弱，CoinMarketCap發布的恐慌與貪婪指數驟降至9，進入“極度恐慌”區間，顯示投資者信心明顯受挫。該數值不僅低於一周前的15，也遠低於上月的中性水平41。此前2月6日一度觸及5的年度低點，凸顯情緒轉變之快。
CoinMarketCap指出，該指數以0至100為評分體系，數值越低代表市場恐懼越強。其計算模型基於五大維度，包括主流資產價格動能、BTC與ETH的隱含波動率指標、期權看跌/看漲比率、穩定幣供應占比，以及平台社交互動熱度。該體系試圖量化交易者在價格波動背後的真實心理狀態。
從價格層面看，比特幣目前在70,500美元附近波動，24小時成交量約428億美元；以太坊在2,096美元附近徘徊；Solana約87.6美元。儘管主流幣價較上週暴跌後有所修復，加密市場總市值也回到2.4萬億美元上方，但情緒指標並未同步回暖，反映出資金仍保持謹慎。
歷史經驗顯示，恐慌指數低於10往往出現在市場壓力集中的階段。美國監管機構也曾指出，極度恐懼可能意味著價格被低估，而極度貪婪則可能暗示泡沫風險。正如Warren Buffett的名言所說，市場情緒往往在極端時刻孕育轉折。
CoinMarketCap同時提醒，該指標並非獨立的交易信號，更適合作為情緒參考工具，應與技術面、資金流向及宏觀數據結合使用。當前環境下，情緒雖處低位，但價格企穩跡象正在顯現，接下來的宏觀事件與流動性變化，或將決定比特幣是否能擺脫“極度恐慌”區間。
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