儘管比特幣近期跌勢兇猛，華爾街投行摩根大通（JPMorgan Chase）仍對後市抱持相對樂觀的看法，認為在機構資金歸隊、監管環境明朗化的雙重利多支撐下，加密貨幣市場今年有望迎來強勁的復甦行情。
由 Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou 領軍的分析團隊周一發布報告指出：
我們對 2026 年的加密貨幣市場持樂觀態度，預期數位資產資金流入將持續攀升，且主導力量將來自機構投資人。
這份樂觀預測，出現在市場情緒仍顯脆弱之際。比特幣近期跌破摩根大通估算的「生產成本」，亦即礦工挖礦的平均成本。過往經驗顯示，生產成本往往是比特幣價格的「軟性底部」，具有心理與結構性的支撐意義。
截至寫稿時，比特幣的交易價格為 67,656 美元，仍低於摩根大通最新估算的生產成本 77,000 美元。值得注意的是，這一成本估值已較前幾周明顯下修。
分析師指出，若比特幣價格長時間低於生產成本，將迫使部分礦工退出市場，算力下降後，整體挖礦難度與平均成本也將隨之下調。這種機制最終會形成自我修復的循環，使市場重新取得平衡。
近幾週加密市場劇烈震盪，比特幣一度跌破與礦工生產成本相關的損益平衡點，市場情緒明顯受挫，鏈上活動亦同步降溫。不過，摩根大通觀察到，儘管散戶參與度下降，機構興趣仍相對穩健。市場波動率雖維持高檔，但若資金輪動再度回流至加密貨幣，市場具備反彈條件。
報告亦提及資產間的相對表現，自去年 10 月以來，黃金表現大幅跑贏比特幣，但近期金價波動率急遽攀升，從長期資產配置的角度來看，相較於黃金，現在的比特幣顯得更具吸引力。
展望後市，摩根大通預測 2026 年數位資產資金流入將出現反彈，主要推動力來自機構投資者，而非散戶或囤幣公司。
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