美國線上券商 Robinhood（NASDAQ: HOOD）公布財報後股價一度重挫，市場焦點落在第 4 季加密貨幣營收年減 38% 。不過，研究與經紀機構伯恩斯坦（Bernstein）認為，這波疲弱反應了「短暫的加密貨幣市場恐慌」，無須過度解讀，並重申 160 美元目標價，意味較周三收盤價仍有約 105% 上行空間。
Robinhood 周三收盤報 78 美元，自盤中低點 74.25 美元回升，但今年以來仍累計下跌約 32% 。
引發市場波動的關鍵，在於營收結構出現分歧。 Robinhood 第四季整體淨營收年增 27%，達到創紀錄的 12.8 億美元，主要受惠於選擇權與股票交易成長。然而，加密貨幣交易營收卻年減 38% 至 2.21 億美元，形成明顯對比。
進一步觀察，Robinhood 加密貨幣營收下滑，與核心 App 交易量年減 52% 密切相關。這反映平台正逐步降低對散戶短期交易熱潮的依賴，轉向訂閱制（如 Gold 會員）與利息收入等多元化收入來源。
在周三發給客戶的報告中，由 Gautam Chhugani 領軍的 Bernstein 分析團隊指出，加密貨幣交易活動放緩所帶來的營收疲軟早已在「預料之中」，並認為 Robinhood 股價已接近底部，現在轉而看空毫無意義。
Bernstein 表示，儘管加密貨幣市場動盪，但 Robinhood 多項核心營運指標依然穩健，包括入金帳戶數、 Gold 訂閱會員與 Gold 信用卡用戶均創新高，以及退休金資產規模翻倍增至 265 億美元。
此外，2025 年底推出的 Robinhood Banking 服務，已吸引逾 2.5 萬名入金客戶，存款餘額超過 4 億美元。
分析師還提到，Robinhood 的預測市場業務屢創佳績，已成為公司的新金雞母，占交易類營收約 14% 、占總營收約 8% 。第四季共交易 85 億份合約，遠高於市場原先預期；2026 年初至今交易量已達 40 億份，正穩步邁向全年 270 億美元的預測目標。
分析師也指出，Robinhood 預計於 2026 年中旬推出與量化交易巨頭 Susquehanna 合作的預測市場合資企業「Rothera」，有望成為推動該公司向更廣泛資訊和資本市場生態系轉型的關鍵。
展望未來，Robinhood 將聚焦家庭理財、私募市場與資產代幣化，並已於周二宣布推出以太坊 Layer2 網路 Robinhood Chain 的公共測試網，未來將支援對代幣化資產進行實驗，並規劃在今年稍晚啟動主網。
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