彭博社 ETF 分析師 Jamse Seyffart 指出,比特幣作為「數位黃金」的說法正在逐漸消失,其價格越來越反映波動性較大的軟體股票,而不是像黃金這樣穩定的資產。不過觀察近期的資金流向,軟體股 ETF 已出現了大量逢低買盤,但同期比特幣 ETF 則出現淨流出。未來比特幣是否會隨著軟體股的止穩而重新向上?
比特幣走勢未與黃金同步,與軟體股相似
藉由分析比特幣 ETF IBIT (下圖橘線)、軟體股 ETF (下圖藍線) 和黃金 ETF (下圖黃線) 的走勢,自 2025 年 8 月以來,黃金上漲了 49%,與此同時,軟體股下跌了 23%,而比特幣則下滑了 49%。可見比特幣走勢未與黃金同步,反而與軟體股更為相似。
比特幣非數位黃金,而是風險資產
Seyffart 並分析了比特幣和黃金的各種特徵和屬性。比特幣相對於黃金的優勢包括易於分割、可透過網路攜帶以及可編程性,但其五年波動率高達 62%,遠超過黃金的 15%,這支持了其目前在市場下跌期間作為高風險科技替代品的做法。
軟體股資金開始回流,比特幣呢?
不過觀察近期的資金流向,軟體股 ETF 已出現了大量逢低買盤,但同期比特幣 ETF 則出現淨流出。未來比特幣是否會隨著軟體股的止穩而重新向上?Seyffart 並沒有給出明確的答案。
在傳統金融加入之後,比特幣與各項總體經濟和資產類別的關係更加緊密,但流動性仍是一大考驗,比特幣未來是否能以盤代跌,待市場情緒和流動性重新上行後出現較正向的走勢,可能還需較長時間的驗證。
(比特幣回調引爆流動性危機,CME 投資的 BlockFills 暫停提款引恐慌)
這篇文章 告別數位黃金神話,比特幣何時隨軟體股止跌回升? 最早出現於 鏈新聞 ABMedia。
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