PANews 2月17日訊，加密分析師 Axel 在個人部落格發文表示，本輪熊市週期從 2025 年 10 月約 12.5 萬美元的歷史最高點開始。Entity-Adjusted Liveliness（實體調整活躍度）指標確認了這一點，該指標在 2025 年 12 月達到週期峰值 0.02676，相較於價格有一個典型的滯後，現在正在向下反轉。
歷史上，這種反轉通常開啟一段持續 1.1 年至 2.5 年的積累階段。圖表上可以清楚看到前兩次積累週期，2020 年熊市持續 1.1 年，2022–2024 年熊市持續 2.5 年。兩次都以完全相同的方式啟動，綠線從峰值反轉，進入持續下降階段，價格隨之向下。目前的形態在結構上完全一致。
如果歷史模式重演，本輪積累期至少持續到 2026 年底，更現實的預期是到 2027 年中。關鍵確認信號為——90 日均線向下反轉並從上方跌破 365 日均線（0.02622）。在發生這個交叉之前，中周期重置並重啟上漲的可能性仍然存在。
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