- 「利差在哪裡?」
- 比恐慌更糟
根據衍生品市場的最新數據,加密貨幣市場目前正遭遇嚴重的冷漠症狀。知名市場分析師David Lawant指出,比特幣期貨的溢價崩潰,明確證明投機熱情已經完全消失。
在X平台的一篇貼文中,Lawant強調CME比特幣基差,這是一個衡量機構投資者槓桿需求的關鍵指標——並指出「利差交易」幾乎已經消失。
「利差在哪裡?」
「基差」指的是比特幣期貨合約價格與現貨市場價格之間的差異。在健康且看漲的市場中,期貨會以溢價(正向遠期)交易,因為交易者願意支付額外費用以獲取槓桿。
熱門消息
加密市場冷漠已由低衍生品需求證實
早間加密報告:XRP尚未準備好突破1.50美元:布林帶、Cardano基金會投票贊成提取50萬ADA、Kiyosaki詳述「富爸爸」比特幣策略
目前,這個溢價正迅速收縮。
Lawant寫道:「利差在哪裡?CME比特幣基差是衡量市場冷漠的絕佳指標。」「長期到期基差在整個曲線上收縮,已經降到自2023年10月以來未見的水平。」
比恐慌更糟
Lawant的分析揭示了一個令人震驚的事實:目前市場對上行槓桿的需求甚至低於過去兩年一些最混亂的市場崩盤期間。
交易者現在預期的槓桿需求比2025年4月的「解放日清洗」和2024年中期的「德國/日圓平倉」時還要少。
這表明市場已經超越恐懼,進入深度冷漠狀態。投資者並未恐慌性拋售,但他們也完全沒有在買入,導致衍生品市場出現自2023年底平靜積累階段以來未見的「平線」信號。
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