美聯儲研究論文稱預測市場具重要分析價值

Polymarket 探索以 $20B 估值融資輪融資 交易量激增之際

Gate News 機器人消息，Polymarket 正在探索一輪新的融資，估值約為 $20B 。該平台的網絡流量迅速增長，月訪問量達到 3840 萬次，在主要平台中排名第二。

Polymarket 預測 Backpack 代幣上線首日 FDV 超 3 億美元概率為 64%

Gate News 消息，3 月 12 日，据相关页面信息，Polymarket 于 3 月 13 日显示，预测「Backpack 代币上线首日后 FDV 超 3 亿美元」的概率为 64%，FDV 大于 5 亿美元的概率则为 30%。此前，Backpack 宣布将于 3 月 23 日进行 TGE（代币生成事件）。

CFTC 主席：将发布预测市场监管指南，为新型事件合约建立明确规则

美國商品期貨交易委員會主席Mike Selig宣布發布針對預測市場的明確指南，以幫助交易平台理解CFTC對新合約的期望，確保透明規則並防止市場操縱和濫用行為。

U.S. CFTC Chair: Will Issue Clear Guidance on Prediction Markets to Prevent Manipulation and Insider Trading

美國CFTC主席Mike Selig發佈預測市場指南，旨在幫助交易平台理解監管期望，以確保新合約透明規則，防範操縱和濫用行為。同時將發佈擬議規則預通知，為新市場制定清晰行事規則。

犹他州 HB243 法案将预测市场定义为赌博，Kalshi 提起联邦诉讼

Utah HB243 bill classifies "proposition betting" as gambling, expected to be signed by the governor, prohibiting platforms like Kalshi from operating. Kalshi has filed federal litigation, arguing its contracts are derivatives, while the CFTC chair stated it will defend its regulatory authority.

두 개의 높은 승률 주소가 15,000달러를 투자하여 미국-이란이 5월 전에 휴전하지 않을 것으로 押注 Wait, let me correct that. You asked for Traditional Chinese translation, but the text is already in Traditional Chinese. 两个高胜率地址投入1.5万美元，押注美伊五月前不会停火

On March 12, PolyBeats detected two high win-rate addresses betting on prediction markets that "the US and Iran will not cease fire before May," collectively investing 15,000 USD, with the current price at 52.5¢. Meanwhile, Iran escalated attacks on Gulf shipping, causing transit through the Strait of Hormuz to stall, with analysts seeing no signs of de-escalation.