彭博分析師 Eric Balchunas 分享了一張黃金和比特幣三年來報酬率的走勢圖，這兩項常被視為「價值儲備」的資產，其年化報酬率皆落在約 39% 的相近水準。儘管最終的績效回報幾乎一致，但兩者達成此數據的價格路徑卻呈現出截然不同的市場特徵。歷史悠久的黃金展現出穩健且持續的上升趨勢，而發展歷史較短的比特幣則伴隨著顯著的價格波動與週期性回撤。
The Tortoise and the Hare: Store of Value edition… love this chart of $GLD vs Bitcoin for past three years have the exactly same 39% ann return but two VERY dif routes there. One’s a teenager and the other is 5,000 years old and they act like it. pic.twitter.com/Fc1bBsSX65
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) February 19, 2026
黃金與比特幣數據解讀：殊途同歸的年化報酬
根據圖表中的數據顯示，在過去三年的區間內，黃金與比特幣的累積總報酬率分別為 169.63% 與 167.65%，換算成年化報酬率來看，黃金為 39.10%，比特幣則為 38.76%，兩者長期績效幾乎相等。然而，數據背後反映出完全不同的波動率。黃金的價格曲線相對平滑，呈現逐步墊高的穩健型態；比特幣則經歷了多次大幅度的向上拉升與深度修正。這種最終殊途同歸的現象，為市場評估資產的風險調整後資本回報率提供了具體的觀察案例。
資產屬性：傳統避險與數位創新的對比
Balchunas 以「龜兔賽跑」來比喻兩者的走勢差異，點出了資產屬性的本質區別。黃金作為擁有數千年歷史的傳統避險資產，其市場深度與共識使其在面對總體經濟不確定性時，能發揮穩定的價值儲存功能。相對而言，比特幣問世僅十餘年，其市場行為更具備科技創新與成長型資產的特質。儘管比特幣被部分市場參與者視為「數位黃金」，但其價格仍高度受流動性變化與市場情緒牽動，呈現出高風險、高波動的特徵。
比特幣已抹去川普連任以來的漲幅，在 67K 窄幅區間尋找方向
2月6日，比特幣一度暴跌13%，創下近四年來的最大跌幅。目前，比特幣價格較去年 10 月初創下的近 127K 的歷史高點下跌了約 50%。
比特幣市場已抹去了川普贏得連任以來的漲幅。在近兩週，比特幣進入了窄幅交易區間，鏈上隱含波動率的下降和現貨 ETF 需求的下降，表明槓桿率已經降低，而投資者仍在尋找方向。
黃金持穩在 5,000 美元附近，伊朗局勢受關注
自月初歷史性暴跌以來，黃金市場一直異常震盪。當時金價從每盎司 5,595 美元以上的歷史高點迅速回落，短短兩天內便跌至 4,400 美元上方。 1 月加速的投機性買盤將持續多年的漲勢推向了臨界點。
本週適逢中國農曆新年假期，黃金在連續兩天上漲後，目前穩定在每盎司 5,000 美元附近徘徊，交易員們正在權衡中東地區不斷上升的地緣政治風險。
(川普 10 天內決定是否攻擊伊朗，油價飆升、AI 衝擊軟體股成市場焦點)
這篇文章 價值儲備的龜兔賽跑，黃金與比特幣誰將獲勝？ 最早出現於 鏈新聞 ABMedia。
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