Polymarket上「法院下令特朗普退还关税」的否定概率突破80%

Polymarket新账户投入2万美元，押注美军3月底前不进入伊朗

Polymarket reports show that on March 13, an account bet $20,000 that the US military would not enter Iran before March 31, with current probability at 75%. The Trump administration's strategy is dual-faceted: on one hand emphasizing that war is imminent to end, on the other hand threatening stronger retaliation. Israel is pressuring the US for ground military operations to eliminate Iran's nuclear threat.

A high-win-rate address invested $3700 betting on US to escort merchant ships through the Strait of Hormuz before April

On March 13, an investor placed a $3,700 bet on Polymarket wagering that the United States would escort commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz by April. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that escort operations would be based on military conditions and international coalition cooperation, requiring air superiority to be established first. The trader may strategically engage in short-term profit-taking and stop-loss operations.

Polymarket 下架香港地区天气预测事件

Gate News 消息，3 月 13 日，Polymarket 搜索顯示，因 Wunderground 無法提供香港天氣的歷史數據，現已下架香港地區的相關天氣預測事件。此外，上海地區的相關天氣預測事件暫未下架。

U.S. CFTC Issues First-Ever Guidance on Prediction Market Manipulation Risks and Seeks Public Comment on Proposed Rules

美国商品期货交易委员会发布针对预测市场操纵风险的指引，要求交易所与监管机构协商推出易受操纵市场。指引指出如合约违背公共利益可能受阻，体育合约应与联盟合作防止内幕交易。

Polymarket 探索以 $20B 估值融資輪融資 交易量激增之際

Gate News 機器人消息，Polymarket 正在探索一輪新的融資，估值約為 $20B 。該平台的網絡流量迅速增長，月訪問量達到 3840 萬次，在主要平台中排名第二。

Polymarket 預測 Backpack 代幣上線首日 FDV 超 3 億美元概率為 64%

Gate News 消息，3 月 12 日，据相关页面信息，Polymarket 于 3 月 13 日显示，预测「Backpack 代币上线首日后 FDV 超 3 亿美元」的概率为 64%，FDV 大于 5 亿美元的概率则为 30%。此前，Backpack 宣布将于 3 月 23 日进行 TGE（代币生成事件）。