Kalshi 完成“最高領袖哈梅內伊去世”預測的退款承諾，保證不讓用戶虧損

Polymarket「俄烏 3 月底前停火」預測概率跌至 2%，總交易量達 2472 萬美元

Gate News 消息，3 月 13 日，Polymarket 預測市場「俄羅斯與烏克蘭是否會在 2026 年 3 月 31 日前停火」事件中，俄烏在 3 月底前達成停火的概率下跌至 2%。該市場 24 小時成交量約 35.5 萬美元，總交易量已達 2472.6 萬美元。該事件概率此前一度走高，但本月持續回落，成交量卻持續放大。主流交易者仍將俄烏短期停火視為極小概率事件。

奧斯卡最佳男主角預測市場賠率逆轉：Michael B. Jordan 升至 58%，Timothée Chalamet 降至 32%

Gate News報道，3月13日，奧斯卡最佳男主角預測中，Michael B. Jordan的獲獎概率上升至58%，而Timothée Chalamet則降至32%。第98屆奧斯卡頒獎典禮將在3月15日舉行，最佳男主角獎競爭激烈。

Polymarket 預測比特幣 3 月回升至 7.5 萬美元概率升至 63%

Gate News report: On March 13, as Bitcoin broke through $71,000, Polymarket prediction market data showed that the probability of Bitcoin rebounding to $75,000 in March rose to 63%. Additionally, the probability of rising to $80,000 is 32%, and the probability of falling to $65,000 is 46%.

New Account Invests $90,000 on Polymarket Betting Iran Regime Falls Before June 30

Polymarket prediction market shows an account betting $90,000 on Iran regime collapse by April 30 and June 30, with current odds at 23.5¢. Iran's internal factional divisions are evident, Supreme Leader Khamenei has not made public appearances, emphasizing hardline foreign policy positions.

Polymarket 數據：民主黨 2026 年中期選舉橫掃概率升至 46% 創新高

Polymarket data shows that the probability of the U.S. Democratic Party achieving a "sweep" in the 2026 midterm elections has risen to 46%, reaching a historic high, up significantly since the U.S.-Iran conflict on February 28, while the Republican Party's probability stands at only 17%. Midterm elections are viewed as a referendum on the incumbent president and the party's performance.

饒舌歌手 Balen Shah 成尼泊爾最年輕總理，Polymarket 精準預測選戰結果

巴倫德拉・沙阿領導的國家自由黨在尼泊爾大選中取得壓倒性勝利，沙阿成為史上最年輕總理。他以說唱歌手身份出道，主打解決實際問題，受到Z世代支持。預測市場Polymarket提前準確預測了選舉結果，顯示市場價格對政治情勢的反映能力。