維基百科創辦人 Jimmy Wales：比特幣難成貨幣、 2050 年恐跌破「這價位」

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2026-03-02 10:10:44

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當市場仍在為比特幣尋找下一個長線敘事時，維基百科（Wikipedia）共同創辦人 Jimmy Wales 表示，比特幣也許不會歸零，但若以「貨幣」或「價值儲存工具」的標準檢驗，比特幣已經徹底出局，他並預言：比特幣將在 2050 年跌破 1 萬美元。

People who think that Bitcoin is going to zero are likely mistaken. The design is robust enough that it will continue to exist in perpetuity, barring some currently unforeseen breakdown in cryptography or a surprise 51% attack (even then, a fork would carry on I would imagine).…

— Jimmy Wales (@jimmy_wales) February 25, 2026

Jimmy Wales 表示，各界認為「比特幣會歸零」的看法未必正確。他說：

比特幣的技術架構非常強韌，除非發生目前難以預見的密碼學重大失效，或遭遇 51% 攻擊，否則它將持續存在。即便出現極端情境，也能透過「分叉」來延續命脈。

然而，他話鋒一轉指出：

比特幣完全可能跌到只剩業餘愛好者在研究、測試的價格水平。作為貨幣、作為價值儲存工具，它是徹底失敗的。也因此，它未來不會成為主導貨幣。

Jimmy Wales 進一步預測，到 2050 年，比特幣價格可能會跌破 1 萬美元（以今日購買力折算）。以目前約 67,736 美元的交易價格估算，意味著未來 24 年內，比特幣的潛在跌幅可能超過 80% 。在 Jimmy Wales 看來，比特幣至今仍屬於「高度投機資產」，且在人工智慧（AI）系統中的採用度幾乎可以忽略不計。他也質疑「機構資金進場」或「比特幣 ETF」將帶來長期穩定需求的論點。他進一步指出：

目前並沒有充分理由相信未來會出現大規模、持續性的累積買盤，支持者最好做足心理準備，迎接比特幣跌回僅供小眾玩家參與的水平。

即便是面對極端環境，例如極權政府對資本流動設限，民眾尋求加密貨幣作為「逃生出口」，Jimmy Wales 也依然抱持懷疑態度。他認為，比特幣使用門檻高、價格波動劇烈，且未被主流經濟體廣泛接受為法定貨幣；相較之下，他更看好黃金、白銀、珠寶、不動產和藝術品仍將在長期避險資產中占據主導地位。事實上，Jimmy Wales 並非首次對加密貨幣提出質疑。早在 2020 年，他就曾表示自己並非基於意識形態反對比特幣，但始終找不到任何讓人「非用它不可」的強大動機。 Jimmy Wales 的批評，也正值比特幣近期自高檔回落之際，市場質疑聲浪再度升溫。部分社群用戶認為，「加密貨幣之王」多年來始終未能兌現最初的承諾。有網友評論指出：

免責聲明：本頁面資訊可能來自第三方，不代表 Gate 的觀點或意見。頁面顯示的內容僅供參考，不構成任何財務、投資或法律建議。Gate 對資訊的準確性、完整性不作保證，對因使用本資訊而產生的任何損失不承擔責任。虛擬資產投資屬高風險行為，價格波動劇烈，您可能損失全部投資本金。請充分了解相關風險，並根據自身財務狀況和風險承受能力謹慎決策。具體內容詳見聲明。

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