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⚠️ Simple and brutal - the US Treasury has completed the largest single repurchase in history——
The US Treasury repurchased $15 billion in debt this week, exceeding last week's $14.7 billion, with Treasury yields continuing to decline.
The Treasury has essentially become a half market maker, and these repurchases were not routine operations previously:
The last routine buyback of Treasury bonds was around 2000;
During the 5-year period of 2018-2023, there were only 7 buybacks total, each with only million-level amounts;
In 2025 there are close to 50, and by 2026 it jumped directly to tens of billions per week.
The most troublesome part is that the US is not simply dealing with high debt levels, but rather new debt is being issued quickly, old debt requires continuous refinancing, and refinancing costs are rising.
The Treasury has already gone this far, how much room does the Federal Reserve have left?
The ammunition magazine of liquidity is almost empty, right? If they don't cut rates soon, there won't even be any wind left to drink.