三木沂水

#比特币站上7.5万美元
1. BTC Standing Firm at $75,000 — A Signal to Charge Toward $80,000?
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin's daily chart has recorded a rare 8-day consecutive rally with moderate volume expansion. The price has not only firmly established itself above $75,000 but also briefly touched the $76,000 level. This movement carries significant marker value — it represents an effective breakthrough of the strong resistance zone between $70,000-$73,000, which had previously suppressed multiple rebounds.
Currently, the daily MACD exhibits a golden cross with expanding positive histogram, in

#加密市场上涨
反弹还是反转？支撑位有效性验证
当前市场的上涨更倾向于超跌反弹而非趋势反转。从技术形态看，比特币在跌破关键均线后虽然收复了$72,000**关口 ，但日线级别依然受制于**50日均线（$72,000） 的压制，且成交量并未伴随价格上涨显著放大，显示出上攻动能不足 。虽然链上数据显示鲸鱼账户在下跌过程中有吸筹迹象，且在$70,000- $69,500 区域形成了较强的短期支撑 ，但在美联储议息会议（FOMC）这一宏观不确定事件落地前，市场很难直接走出反转行情 。
📈 策略推演：震荡格局中的应对
结合消息面，本周美联储决议是最大的不确定性因素 。在宏观风险落地前，趋势性单边行情的概率较低，预计价格将继续在区间内震荡。
1. 短期策略（高抛低吸）：
鉴于4小时级别RSI处于中性偏弱区域（41附近）且MACD呈现死叉 ，短线不宜追高。若价格反弹至$71,500-$72,000 阻力区（同时也是50日均线压制位），可考虑轻仓试空，止损设于$72,500**上方。若价格回踩至**$68,500-$69,500 强支撑区且出现企稳信号，则是布局短线多单的机会 。
2. 风险控制：
本周需重点关注周三FOMC决议的表态。若决议偏鹰派（点阵图显示加息预期），需警惕风险资产再次下探支撑的风险；反之若决议鸽派，则有望突破盘整区间 。

This weekend, BTC and ETH will likely continue to fluctuate. BTC is currently between 70,000 and 72,500 USD, with 72,500 USD being a strong resistance level. Whether it breaks through depends on whether the volume is sufficient. If it can hold steady, it may surge toward 74,000 USD. The support level is around 70,000 USD, and if broken, it could fall to 68,000 USD.
ETH is currently around 2,099 USD, with support between 2,000 to 2,020 USD and resistance between 2,100 to 2,150 USD. It has been following BTC recently, but the rebound strength is not as strong as BTC. In the short term, it may pu